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Subject: RIBC 2008: Draft Rationales (Rounds 19-25) Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Mon, Mar 17, 2008, 10:43 Bringing it home! Rationales for rounds 1-6 Rationales for rounds 7-12 Rationales for rounds 13-18 | ||||||
| 58 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 08:17 |
for Bash Brothers 22.12 Andre Ethier, OF, LAD Picking Ethier here made me look like a fool who chose Kemp in round 6. I was thinking Kemp a sure thing in the starting OF of the Dodgers when I drafted him. But Ethier's strong spring made me pretty worry. Although Pierre is playing poorly this spring, he is not likely to be relegated to the bench. So it might be Kemp, Ethier, and Pierre rotating on the 2 corner outfield spots in the Dodger's lineup, barring trade or injuries. Ouch! | |||||
| 59 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 08:17 |
for coldwater coyotes 22.13 Fernando Rodney, RP, DET The days are numbered for the old man presently closing for Detroit. Lets hope that when he needs to be replaced Rodney will be injury free. | |||||
| 60 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 08:18 |
for Uptown Bombers 22.14 Josh Bard, C, SDG Obviously, I waited on filling my C spot. I would have liked to wait some more, but I figured that a few teams at least would pick backup catchers. I figured to just go ahead and grab mine now. In my mind, unless you are talking the top 4-5, it makes very little difference. After them, you are looking at 60/60 type players with lower than average OPS. Bard will likely be closer to 50/50 as long as he continues to split time. And the difference in OPS between him and most of the other catchers is mitigated by the lower AB’s. | |||||
| 61 | StLCards Dude ID: 31010716 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 08:27 |
22.15 Elijah Dukes, OF, WAS Looking over my lineup I decided I could use another OF with some pop. I browsed through available players and was a bit surprised to see Dukes still available. Figured he must be in jail or something, but a quick look showed he should be starting. If there ever was a player you couldn't project, Dukes could be the guy. Certainly he has the talent, just whether he can stay focused on and off the field to put it to use. Worth a shot. | |||||
| 62 | Building 7 ID: 471052128 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 09:23 |
22.16, Alex Gonzalez, SS, CIN 10 reasons not to draft Alex Gonzalez: A. He has a broken knee. That's what it said. B. He has a reputation as a good glove, no hit SS. C. He gets confused with the other Alex Gonzalez, who's not any good either. D. There has been a complete news blackout on him since 2/27/08 on free sites. E. In 4007 career AB's, he has an OPS of .695. F. He's missed 50 games each of the last two seasons. G. His career OB% is .295. H. In 10 years, he's stolen 24 bases, and been cut down 18 times. I. He was not drafted in any of the other RIBC drafts. J. He's on nobody's radar, and would probably last until the last round. or be available on waivers. I drafted him anyways. We'll see what happens. 23.01, Orlando Hernandez, SP, NYM He had good stats last year. About two hours after I picked him, this note was posted on the internet: Orlando Hernandez topped out at 81 mph and threw mostly in the mid-70s during an 80-pitch simulated game on Tuesday. Gulp. Hernandez will pitch in a game for the first time Sunday, but he seems likely to begin the season on the disabled list due to his foot injury. It's hard to imagine him succeeding against major league hitters with a fastball that pales in comparison to [UNDRAFTED]….. He looks to be my first cut. | |||||
| 63 | StLCards Dude ID: 31010716 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 10:49 |
23.02 Dioner Navarro, C, TAM Navarro is a nice young catcher who had a pretty good second half last year. I don't expect a lot of the catcher spot, but I do need some insurance for Doumit in case he doesn't end up playing, and I feel comfortable that Navarro won't hurt my stats too bad, although there could be some more growing pains like he had at the start of last season. | |||||
| 64 | StLCards Dude ID: 31010716 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 11:00 |
for Uptown Bombers 23.03 Franklin Morales, SP, COL I wasn’t really expecting to draft another SP, but while looking around at RP and offensive players, I wasn’t terribly thrilled. So I checked the available SP’s and found a pick with some good upside. If Morales gets his act together this year, this pick will allow me to be more selective with my SP matchups. Also, if he blossoms, he could give me a trading chip. Not too many of the other players I was looking at here offered the same potential. | |||||
| 65 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 12:03 |
for coldwater coyotes 23.04 Dan Wheeler, RP, TAM Baseball HQ's analysis of Wheeler's performance last season is that it was not nearly as bad as the numbers make it look. They still think he has the skills that he showed in the previous few years. If so he will be a great addition to my pitching staff, 70 innings with an ERA of 2.50 and a few vulture wins. And there is always the possibility that he will become the closer. | |||||
| 66 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 12:04 |
for Bash Brothers 23.05 Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD Nothing much needed to be said about the best left-handed pitching prospect in the minors. Had he been given a SP job this spring, he would have already gone in much earlier round. The only problem is whether I can hold on to him long enough to enjoy his service in the Majors. | |||||
| 67 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 12:11 |
23.06 Justin Speier, RP, Ana Great ratios last year, but they were probably flukey to an extent. Still, his career ERA is 3.92, with a WHIP of 1.21, and they've been much better than those values over the last three years. Will share setup duties with Scot Shields, and in the catastrophic instance of a KRod injury (for my team, at least), he might get some of the closing opps. | |||||
| 68 | JL ID: 20281920 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 22:16 |
23.07 Bobby Crosby Well I’ve held off on the SS position long enough. As I mentioned earlier, wish I would have paid better attention to the lack of depth here and taken either Guillen or Tulowitzki in the 3rd round. Having missed that opportunity, I thinking waiting was the right decision. Looking at every SS drafted after Khalil Greene (11.06) it’s pretty tough to argue they are obviously better than Crosby. Each has their warts and I decided there was better value elsewhere. Everyone knows Crosby's story. ROY in 2004, no more than 358 AB’s in a season since then. I have no reason to think this season will be any different, I just decided to flip a coin. If he stays healthy a .320/.420 season is within reason. If not, he’s just waiver wire fodder and I’ll have to pay up for a more stable option on the trade market. | |||||
| 69 | JL ID: 20281920 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 22:16 | 23.08 Masahide Kobayashi | |||||
| 70 | JL ID: 20281920 Wed, Mar 19, 2008, 22:17 |
23.09 Melvin Mora, 3B, Bal At this point, I was still looking for a player that could just put up some numbers until Mike Cameron gets back or until I find someone else that starts off hot. Mora has been awful the past two seasons, but he was excellent in 2004 and 2005. He’s had a solid spring, so maybe he’ll find a way to be productive. | |||||
| 71 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:43 |
for Dave R 23.10 Eric Aybar SS/2B LAA Trying to catch lightning in a bottle. I don't know if Aybar is going to start. From what I've heard, that's what the Angels would like. Eric didn't hit much last year, but did well in the minors, and doesn't have much pop in his bat. But he can run and should be a good source of steals from a 23rd round pick. A bonus is he is eligible at both 2B and SS | |||||
| 72 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:44 |
for dror 23.11 Andy Sonnanstine, SP, TB Much like my last pick (Bergmann), Sonnanstine is another off the radar of young pitcher whose nubmers last year are probably much worse then he really is. With a terrific K/BB ratio and following a strong spring that locked him a rotation spot I'm feeling good about Sonnanstine having a positive contribution to my team this year. | |||||
| 73 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:44 |
for blue hen 23.12 Eric Chavez, 3B, OAK See Jack Hannahan, 24.05. | |||||
| 74 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:44 |
for Taxman 23.13 Scott Downs, RP, TOR In first year as a full time RP, Downs, 31 yrs old, earned a multi-year multi million $ contract. He couldn’t finish well enough to hold down the closer’s job, but excelled in 7th and 8th inning appearances. He was helped by becoming an extreme ground ball pitcher with a good defense behind him. The other bigee was his career high 2.6 K/BB ratio. I expect to Downs to produce 5 vulture wins, 4 saves, 60 K’s with 3.25 ERA and 2.60 WHIP. | |||||
| 75 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:45 |
for Tosh 23.14 Brian Bannister, SP, KAN I need a #5 pitcher to approach the IP limit, and Bannister has as much upside as anyone left (finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year award last year). Pitching for KC, you can never count on a Win when he pitches, and he’s not much of a strikeout guy, but has a nice curveball and pretty decent control. If he were to approach his 2007 numbers of 3.87 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, I would be totally pleased. | |||||
| 76 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:45 |
for Yokel 23.15 Yuniesky Betancourt, SS, Sea With this and the next pick, I'm just trying to round out my bench in case of injuries. Betancourt is actually not too bad in this format - his 38 doubles last year resulted in a respectable slugging percentage. However, he only took 21 walks so his on base percentage isn't much higher than his average. | |||||
| 77 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:46 |
for JeffG 23.16 Shawn Hill SP Was If healthy would possibly be staff ace. Ok it is the ace for the Nats. Hill had good averages last year in limited action. Drafting this guy on potential and hope he can join the team mid-April and stay healthy. Thought about another MR in Cruz or Springer. 24.01 Ross Gload 1B/OF KC I know spring stats are meaningless, but Gload is having a decent spring. I'll ride out his hit "hot" bat to start the regular season and see where it goes. Also considered C/1B Saltalamacchia | |||||
| 78 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:46 |
for Yokel 24.02 Ben Broussard,1B,Tex Grabbing a backup corner infielder here. Going to Texas from Seattle may boost his production. | |||||
| 79 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:47 |
for Tosh 24.03 Coco Crisp OF BOS Yeah, that Ellsbury guy is supposed to be pretty good, but Crisp ain’t bad either. And he’s that magical 28 years old. So will he start? Does his playing time become too unpredictable to keep on my roster? Does he get traded somewhere? My Magic 8 Ball says ‘check back later’, but I’m still penciling in 500 ABs, with a .342 OBP, .400 SLG, and 28 steals. | |||||
| 80 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:47 |
for Taxman 24.04 Dave Roberts, OF, SFO Old man, but hasn’t lost much in speed, which is good because that and runs are all he can contribute. The need for base stealing abilities is magnified by the absence of power in the Giants line up. With out Bonds behind him the line up, Roberts will have a constant green light, but injury history indicates he won’t exceed 350 Abs. More ifs, but optimum numbers for 2008 are 65 R, 40 RBI, .340 OBP and .385 SLG. His big number will be 40 steals. | |||||
| 81 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:48 |
for blue hen 24.05 Jack Hannahan, 3B, OAK Along with Eric Chavez, I have two options who might play third base for Oakland this season. Chavez is the starter and a steal this late in the draft. I figured I'd also pick up Hannahan and make sure I could handle it if Chavez had any injury issues. | |||||
| 82 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:48 |
for dror 24.06 Juan Cruz, RP, ARI With so many middle releivers allready taken I was very surprised (and happy) that someone as good as Cruz is still out there. Cruz is only 29 years old and is gonna pitch for a lot of money this year (he is a FA after the season). He finished 2007 6-1 with 3.10/1.26 ratios and an amazing 87 Ks in 61 IP. Expecting a repeat might be a little greedy, but with so many terribly average MRs taken before him I really like this pick. Who knows, with the closer situation in Arizona not exactly stable, he might even end up geting saves at some point. | |||||
| 83 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:49 |
for Dave R 24.07 Chris Denorfia OF Oak At this point, Denorfia seems to be the front runner for the CF job for the A's. That's about all you can ask in round 24. A significant portion of the later round picks will wind up as waiver fodder anyway. Chris missed all last year with an injured elbow, and was acquired from the Reds via a trade. In AAA, in 2006 he had an OPS of .893, scored 46 runs and drove in 45 in 83 games. And stole 15 bases. So if he winds up as the A's centerfielder, who knows. | |||||
| 84 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:49 |
for JL 24.08 Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Tex Salty has been passed over in the draft by many because Gerald Laird appears to have won the starting job for the Rangers. Ron Washington has recently said, however, that Salty will start the year in the big leagues and will play C, 1B, and DH. He was a disappointment last season, but his numbers were still solid for a catcher. With improvement, he has the skills to be a top-10 catcher. I normally wouldn't want to take more than one catcher, but there wasn't much else left at this point, so he seemed like a good risk to take. | |||||
| 85 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:50 |
for RoBoGuRu 24.09 Ubaldo Jimenez SP COL | |||||
| 86 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:51 |
for Flying Polack 24.10 Nate Robertson SP DET Pitching for the Tigers he should get plenty of W’s. Question is, how much will he hurt my ratios…I don’t know. His 2006 numbers (3.84/1.30) wouldn’t hurt too much. His 2007 numbers would hurt a lot (4.76/1.47). I think he’s a decent bet to rebound, his batting average on balls in play was above average last year at .315. He’ll have to prove it before I give him any innings. | |||||
| 87 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:52 |
24.11 Pedro Feliciano, RP, NYM Pedro, from the Mets pitching staff, in round 24? What a steal! Oh wait, wrong Pedro. Another bullpen filler. Good results the past two years, and no ER allowed so far in 7 IP in spring training. Good K ratio. Still, he may be the first pitcher dropped in favor of a free agent starter. | |||||
| 88 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:52 |
for Bash Brothers 24.12 Damaso Marte RP PIT You just pick whoever left and serviceable this late in the draft. Marte fits both criteria. Enough said. | |||||
| 89 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:53 |
for coldwater coyotes 24.13 Jim Hoey RP BAL A flyer. He has the talent to be a top reliever but may not show it this year. I am fully prepared to drop him in the first few weeks. | |||||
| 90 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:53 |
for Uptown Bombers 24.14 Jacque Jones, OF, DET I wanted another OF. Jones really struggled last year and burned me for picking him. I should stay away but decided to take this platoon player who came on strong in the last two months of the season. In the packed Detroit lineup, even from the 9th spot, Jones stands to have his chances. Unless he surprises me, he’ll hang around until some younger player emerges from the waiver wire. | |||||
| 91 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:54 |
for StLCards 24.15 Daniel Cabrera, SP, BAL Looking over my team I decided I needed a backup SS and 3B with my last two picks. I had Keppinger sitting at the top of my queue who would have satisfied both of those needs. Then I decided I better look at how many pitchers we start and I saw I was one short. Cabrera has always had potential but just can't ever put it together. Last year he was drafted in the 15th round, so I guess I could say I got a bargain here. If nothing else I have a warm body to plug into a pitcher slot. I could have gone with the popular MR who might someday become a closer strategy, but that one never sits well with me as a slew of MRs won't get you enough IP and Saves are simply one category even if they do become a closer. After deciding on Cabrera the next issue was which order to take Keppinger and Cabrera. I saw Building7 had only 8 pitchers like me so I figured him to take a pitcher for sure. I wasn't sure who else he might take, but it seemed he had 2 MI backups already, although now that I look closer I should have realized that Alex Gonzalez was one of them and of course he is hurt, which is why Keppinger made perfect sense for him. | |||||
| 92 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:55 |
for Building 7 24.16, Kurt Suzuki, C,OAK Ichiro's younger brother. I had to look up his first name to write this. He'll play a couple games in Japan and then it will be soyanara for him. He's not really Ichiro's brother. 25.01, Jeff Keppinger, SS,CIN He's insurance for Alex Gonzalez. If he plays he could do well. He just needs playing time. | |||||
| 93 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:55 |
for StLCards 25.02 Jack Wilson, SS, PIT Once Keppinger was gone I decided to take a backup SS. Wilson seems to have stretches where you think he is going to break out and be very productive, but it never lasts the whole season. He has hit 30 (years not HRs) so he isn't likely to suddenly become a fantasy stud at SS. Then again this is my last pick so hopefully if I do use him it will be during one his hot streaks. | |||||
| 94 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:56 |
for Uptown Bombers 25.03 Kevin Frandsen, 2B, SF Don’t know much about this guy other than he has eligibility at 2B, SS, OF already and could be headed to 3B as a starter. I liked that flexibility, particularly at 2B and 3B and the fact that he is a young player with room for improvement with consistent playing time. | |||||
| 95 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:56 |
for coldwater coyotes 25.04 Chris Burke 2B ARI One time hot prospect who is having a great spring. Who knows? And he qualifies at numerous positions. | |||||
| 96 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:57 |
for Bash Brothers 25.05 Ronnie Belliard 2B WAS Words are he's ahead of Lopez on coach's preference list as the starting 2B. Moreover, he's got some pop in his bat. So this is a STEAL in ROUND 25! | |||||
| 97 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:57 |
25.06 Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atl | |||||
| 98 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:58 |
for Flying Polack 25.07 David Eckstein SS TOR It was Eckstein or Crosby for SS in the 23rd round. When I saw Eckstein available I decided to grab him as insurance. He’ll hurt you bad in SLG and RBI’s, but his OB%, Runs and SB’s should actually help my bottom line. | |||||
| 99 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:58 |
for RoBoGuRu 25.08 Pedro Feliz 3B PHI | |||||
| 100 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:59 |
for JL 25.09 Marcus Thames, OF, Det Thames is expected to platoon with Jacque Jones for Detroit this season, with Thames batting against lefties. Last season, Thames had an OPS above .900 against lefties in 41 games. I will start him against lefties to begin the year. | |||||
| 101 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 16:59 |
for Dave R 25.10 Mike Lamb 1B/3B Min I love these last round picks. One of the main reasons I picked Lamb, is he gives me back up insurance at both CI positions. Looks possible that He might be in a platoon situation. When given time , Lamb has performed rather well. In 3 of the last 4 years his OPS was over .800. But I'm not looking for miracles here, getting lucky would be OK | |||||
| 102 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 17:00 |
for dror 25.11 Dennis Sarfate, RP, BAL Sarfate moved to Baltimore from Houston as part of the Tejada trade and will open the season in the O's bullpen. He is a flamethrower that will get a lot of his outs via Ks, if he can find his command and limit the walks the 50-60 IP that he will throw over the season can have some positive value. | |||||
| 103 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 17:00 |
for blue hen 25.12 Michael Wuertz, RP, CHC Some nice strikeouts is all I'm looking for here. | |||||
| 104 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 17:02 |
for Taxman 25.13 Bengie Molina, C, SFO Molina taken as short term insurance policy for injury to my starting Catcher. Molina has been projected as the # 4 hitter for the Giants, but won’t have many people on base to drive in. I look for this Molina to generate 50 R and 65 RBI, 2 SB, a .330 OBA and .430 SLG. All in all, not bad numbers for the 325th player drafted. [ed. note - actually the 396th player drafted!] | |||||
| 105 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 17:02 |
for Tosh 25.14 Ryan Franklin RP STL Did I really just draft Ryan Franklin? A couple years ago, I went to 20-25 Seattle Mariner games a season. I always felt so gypped when Franklin was the announced SP, because I knew we would probably leave the stadium as losers as he went a combined 12-31 in ’05-’06. Man that guy annoyed me. But now he’s the setup guy for the only sure closer on my team (Isringhausen), and pitched pretty darn good last season as a reliever. So I’ll handcuff him to Issy and see what happens. | |||||
| 106 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 17:03 |
for Yokel 25.15 Russ Springer, Rp, Stl Who knows? if you grab enough middle relievers, one might actually pick up a save here and there. He put up very good numbers last year, but he's like 39 years old so mainly he's just on my roster for the veteran leadership. | |||||
| 107 | Guru ID: 330592710 Thu, Mar 20, 2008, 17:03 |
for JeffG 25.16 Jose Vidro 2B/OF Sea With the LAST pick in the draft....Just another MI option. No real enthusiasm here. We'll see what he has left in the tank. | |||||
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