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Subject: Survivor Season 12
Posted by: katietx
- [361132147] Tue, Jan 10, 2006, 16:09
The update |
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| 26 | Skidazl
Leader
ID: 379312323
Thu, Apr 27, 2006, 21:38
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oops, knew I shouldn't have looked in here...
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| 27 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 01:30
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Disagree J. He has tried for 5 weeks now to get some group to turn, and they keep dissing him. It's self-preservation
Danielle is the biggest flip-flopping b!tch. She sucks.
Cirie is quite the power broker. Loved the look on Shane's face.
Terry's logical play is to see if he wins immunity again next week, and barter with someone (Danielle?) and give them the idol to guarantee their spot in the final 4. In return, Danielle (in this case) agrees to vote for Aras, so when the idol is played Aras is gone and it's 2-2. Danielle would be stupid to double-cross Terry and risk the wrath of the jury.
Of course, she's proven she can't be trusted, so who knows? lol
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| 28 | Skidazl
Leader
ID: 379312323
Fri, Apr 28, 2006, 11:21
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Right about terry not screwing up, he was blindsided by courtney getting voted off as much as everybody else except the 3 who did it, so there was no real reason for him to offer the idol to Courtney, he thought Aras was already going...
I once said cirie had no right to even still be in the game, I take that back. I'm actually pulling for her now...
"Danielle is the biggest flip-flopping b!tch. She sucks."
It's called self preservation, she is actually being smart, as far as I can see. I always hated how stupid people acted in the game, but it was easy for me to say, because I saw everything. She is being smart and making all the moves logically. She knows Cirie holds the power so that is who she is going with...
Voting courtney was very wise on Cirie's part especially since they knew everybody wanted to take courtney to the final 2, leaving them in 3rd at best...
This season sucked as far as I was concerned until this week, now things are looking up, and by all means, Shane should be gone next week. I see Aras winning immunity and and shane getting the votes...
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| 29 | C1-NRB
ID: 5131158
Mon, May 01, 2006, 09:41
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They'll still go after Aras. Shane has proven he doesn't have any stamina. Terry can cherry pick who to go against in the final three (my choice would be Shane and Cirie). No one would give Shane the million because nobody likes him. Now that Courtney is gone I'd carry him into the finals. Cirie is best player so I'd drop her because the jury sometimes pays the player but rarely pays the annoyer.
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| 30 | weykool
ID: 3331279
Mon, May 01, 2006, 16:31
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I dont think Terry made the wrong move.
He is the only player right now guaranteed to be in the final 4.
He needs to make a deal with Danielle to ask for her vote against Aras in exchange for taking her to the final 3.
If he can do that he will assure himself a spot in the finals.
I he wins immunity he can give the Idol to Danielle and when they vote for her, Aras will have two votes knocking him out.
If he loses Immunity then the same drill.
Keep the Idol and vote for Aras.
If Aras wins immunity then they change thier vote to the power broker Ciree.
Am I the only one who remembers Ciree almost being the first player voted out and now is fianl 5?
1 vote can be the difference between 16th and top 5.
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| 31 | C1-NRB
ID: 17348117
Mon, May 01, 2006, 23:53
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I was absolutely sure Cirie was gone when the Older Women had to go to Tribal Council but she showed she was a real player by turning those other two so easily and dropping their strongest tribe member. She was playing waaaay back then, but no one is around who knows it.
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| 32 | ChicagoTRS
Leader
ID: 566152116
Tue, May 02, 2006, 11:07
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Is there a point when Terrys special immunity idol becomes null and void? At what point does he need to give it back if he does not use it?
Seems like he is in great shape to make the final two...needs Aras out next and then he should cruise to immunities (not like he hasn't already)....the final 3 immunity has typically been some sort of endurance test...I can't see anyone competing with him in that. I think his main danger at this point would be to face Cirie in the finals she seems to be the most likeable left...
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| 33 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Tue, May 02, 2006, 11:20
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TRS - the idol is only good until the Final 4. With 5 left now this week is the last week it can be used.
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| 34 | Mat Cauthon
ID: 551142198
Tue, May 02, 2006, 12:52
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So now the hidden immunity idol becomes a really important piece, huh? If Terri wins this next immunity challenge (as he is wont to do), and this is the last week that the hidden idol can be used, he can then barter it away for something valuable. Like an alliance, or a consensus vote against Cirie or Aras.
On a semi-related note, what if Terri makes it to the final two, and has to face a jury made up with A LOT of Casaya members? Wouldn't it be incredible, and unheard of, if those former Casayas gave the $1M to Terri's opponent in the finals, based only on the old tribal breakdown? He certainly hasn't made many friends in his new tribe--the preview for next week implies that there's a bit of a meltdown between he and Aras, and that's on top of his getting on Shane's and Danielle's nerves.
On the other hand, a lot of those former Casaya members are on the jury because of some shady maneuvering by their former tribemates. I mean, it's not like Terri did anything against them except dominate the immunity challenges. I think the "closing arguments" for the jury and the vote for the final two is going to be incredibly interesting because of this.
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| 35 | katietx
ID: 4311371011
Thu, May 04, 2006, 23:44
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Nice to see that Shane was surprised tonight. Now Danielle will try and ally with Terri, interesting.
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| 36 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Fri, May 05, 2006, 00:12
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Danielle is easily the best person for Terry to take to the final 2. She's turned back and forth many times on many people.....so I think that's what he needs to do. He needs to win immunity so he can allign with Danielle to get Aras off, so he can coast easily into the final 2 after winning the "Endurance" challenge at the end.
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| 37 | J
Leader
ID: 049346417
Fri, May 05, 2006, 00:14
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i could've SWORN the rule was you have to use your hidden immunity idol by the final four or you lose it. Did Terry blow it??? AGAIN???
I've now got 3 of the final 4 in my little fantasy game!!!!!
I'm tied for first in points though, Terry is killing me!
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| 38 | katietx
ID: 4311371011
Fri, May 05, 2006, 00:29
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Species...he has to use it next week (when there are only 4 left) or lose it. Whether he wins or looses the next challenge, he's guaranteed in the final 3. Personally, I hope it wins it all. He is definitely the strongest player and if I remember correctly he hasn't turned his back on anyone yet.
Danielle, Aras or Cirie would have a tough go with Shane on the jury IMO.
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| 39 | Boxman
ID: 1641754
Fri, May 05, 2006, 06:24
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Just when I was starting to like Shane too. Danielle is certainly the person to take to the final two. She's the best hope Terry has for the Casaya members to break their allegiance and vote for someone else. I think if Cirie gets to the final two, she wins. Probably the same with Aras.
Picking Shane to see his kid could very well get Terry a key vote on the jury.
I too thought the immunity idol had to be used or losed to get into the final four, not in the final four.
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| 40 | weykool
ID: 15339116
Fri, May 05, 2006, 09:50
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My only question was why not give Cerie and Hubby the overnight and Shane and son camp time?
Terry blew it when he should have come back to Aras with:
"If you won the challenge mr mommy's boy would you have even allowed me to hug my wife or would you have sent me to exile island and nothing"?
The problem is Terry has no chance to win the million. He has done nothing to endear himself to any of the other players. If he had tried to be more friendly and less arrogant he might have stood a chance when the other players stabbed each other in the back.
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| 41 | beastiemiked
ID: 18301915
Fri, May 05, 2006, 10:18
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Terry already has 3 votes(Austin, Sally, and Bruce) and will only need to sway one other person, Shane or Courtney most likely, to win the million.
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| 42 | weykool
ID: 394849
Fri, May 05, 2006, 12:34
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Why does Terry have Bruce.
He tried to work Bruce for an alliance after the merge and Bruce stayed with his "new tribe".
I could see Courtney possibly giving her vote to him but not shane.
Shane despises Terry and will never vote for him.
My guess is Terry displays his arrogance during the Jury council (also known as "last chance for losers to be crybabies" )and he loses 5-2.
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| 43 | beastiemiked
ID: 36428317
Fri, May 05, 2006, 13:22
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Bruce respects him and he never complained about his arrogance. I'd be very surprised if Bruce voted for anyone besides Terry in the finals.
I think Shane will vote for Terry no matter what. Shane never liked Danielle and he got completely screwed over by Cirie and Aras. Not to mention that Terry gave Shane his best memory of survivor.
Cirie has played the best game but unless these survivors are complete idiots they will take her out before the finals.
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| 44 | Mac Daddy
ID: 2343439
Fri, May 05, 2006, 15:15
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I agree BMD. Seems to me like Terry already has Austin, Sally and Shane. Shane just got screwed over by everyone but Terry, two weeks in a row. And Terry gave him the cool reward.
I think it depends on Courtney. But Courtney's feelings on the last two episodes must be that Terry didn't screw me, Cirie, Aras and especially Danielle did. And her tribe all thought she was annoying so I doubt she has any love for those people.
I wish Cirie to win but I just don't see how anyone would keep her next wek. I wouldn't even risk her getting in the Final 2.
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| 45 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 15426514
Fri, May 05, 2006, 16:29
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My money is on Terry as long as he is not facing Cirie...never can tell with the vote...people make odd choices...
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| 46 | Skidazl
Leader
ID: 379312323
Fri, May 05, 2006, 23:05
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I also thought you had to use the idol before the final four, but Terry did say what Katie said about being able to use it next week...
I too thought he should have chosen Cirie and hubby to go to the overnighter, the kid probably would have had a great time in camp, but I think he did it strategically believing Shane was more of a threat than Cirie, boy was he wrong...
And I don't know about you guys but what terry said about it being "just a mom" pissed me off as it did Aras. I am married and my mom is right up there with my wife as far being a huge part of my life...
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| 47 | Bond, James Bond
ID: 153222920
Fri, May 05, 2006, 23:15
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Glad to see that Shane finally got the boot. Should have got rid of him lonnnnnnnnnngggggg ago.
IMHO, it looks like an Aras-Danielle finale. Don't think Terry is gonna win EVERY SINGLE IMMUNITY challenge so I suspect he'll be booted soon. If I were them, I'd get rid of Cirie first since she's so likeable and therefore unbeatable if she makes it to the finals.
So, here's my order of finish:
Champ---Aras
2nd place--Danielle
3rd place--Terry
4th place--Cirie
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| 49 | beastiemiked
ID: 18301915
Tue, May 09, 2006, 14:17
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Thanks for ruining for us. Appreciate it.
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| 50 | beastiemiked
ID: 36428317
Fri, May 12, 2006, 01:25
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Lamest episode ever.
Doesn't seem Shane or Courtney are too thrilled with Danielle. Even if Cirie wins this challenge either guy would have to be a total idiot to take her to the finals.
Cirie wins if she makes it to the finals
Terry wins if he faces Aras or Danielle
Aras wins if he faces Danielle
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| 51 | Mat Cauthon
ID: 9416128
Fri, May 12, 2006, 09:26
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On the other hand BMD, you have to also factor in the producer's editing at this point. They seem to always do something like this, where they edit it to make it look like someone, in this case Courtney and Shane, really dislike someone else like Danielle (judging by the looks on their faces that the producers choose to show when Danielle is talking). In the past, sometimes this has been accurate, and sometimes it's been a total red herring move to make us think differently.
Personally, I agree with your assessment of who-wins-when. But one of the things the jury members always harp on is whether someone just coasted through to the finals without doing much work around camp. Could that work against Cirie? I didn't see much of the first third of the season--has she done her share around camp? Keeping in mind that she did her fair share of backstabbing (Shane, etc.)...
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| 52 | katietx
ID: 10415920
Fri, May 12, 2006, 09:26
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Why do you think Terry would win over Aras? I think the old alliance would carry Aras right to the 1 mil.
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| 53 | Mat Cauthon
ID: 9416128
Fri, May 12, 2006, 09:47
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I'd also have to agree with BMD's notion that this was one of the weakest episodes. Why the cliffhanger at the end? Just show us who's a better pyro already and let's keep things moving! ;)
As for Terry vs. Aras... Mostly this is just wishful thinking that a jury won't base their vote based on old tribal lines. That's would be disappointing. But I also think that at least one jury member, like Bruce for instance, would be more likely to base his vote on whether he thought Terry "outplayed" everyone else, which I think he did.
On the other hand, Terry is seeming like more and more of an arrogant prig, and I can easily see that working against him with the later jury members.
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| 54 | Species
Leader
ID: 07724916
Fri, May 12, 2006, 11:55
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While the psychology of being 'unbeatable' is probably something I would have tried, in hindsight once Terry was 5 on 1 and he kept winning, he should have just kept his trap shut and let the other 5 backstab and turn on one another to create more dissention and have each other to spit venom at instead of giving them ANY ammunition when it came to the final jury.
That immunity ends up being pretty key. Terry would have had an EXCELLENT shot vs. Danielle.....NO shot vs. Cirie and I think he's the underdog vs. Aras. This assumes the ONE second clip I saw of Cirie's fire pit looking pretty good in the fire challenge turns out to be true and Cirie wins. Terry needed that final immunity to protect Danielle and get Aras out....which would have left him zero competition in the final immunity challenge.
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| 55 | Mat Cauthon
ID: 9416128
Fri, May 12, 2006, 12:02
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I thought Cirie's firepit looked pretty blazing too, but again, that might just be the editing. I'll keep my fingers crossed over the weekend in the hopes that Cirie's fire burns biggest first. I can't remember a Survivor contestant within the last handful of seasons that I've liked more. Cirie rules.
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| 56 | Boxman
ID: 2630259
Fri, May 12, 2006, 12:44
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I can totally see where Terry is coming from, I'm rooting for him, and the Casaya(?) people on that show need to keep their yap shut and cut out the hypocrisy.
1 - There was 5 of them when Terry made his run. You don't think they rubbed it in his nose every chance they had about voting him out first? What would your reaction be? I would personally want to stick it to them.
2 - Terry could very well have a mindset of the best he can do is second place with the layout of the jury. So why not just let it all hangout and rub their noses in it while you can?
3 - The Casaya(?) people have got to be furious that Terry is embarassing them. You don't think he's a target for verbal shots just because of that?
4 - The Casaya(?) people are morons. Cirie drops a large rod in front of Terry in the dark and then gets mad that he said something. When you're walking thru forest or a jungle the last thing you need is one more thing to trip on.
5 - This happens every Survivor season. The group in power rubs it in the face of the losing group and then somebody whines about the treatment as if they wouldn't do the same thing. How funny.
Go get 'em Terry. Give 'em hell.
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| 57 | weykool
ID: 394849
Fri, May 12, 2006, 14:03
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I think Terry has wasted an opportunity to become the lesser of 2 evils.
As the odd man out he should have been less combative....let the Casaya memebers stab each other in the back and then play the part of the amiable underdog.
Was he right to bring up Cerie dropping the torch?
Yes....but then he should have let it go.
Why keep going on about it?
If she doesnt "get it" when you first bring it up....she will never "get it".
Going on and on about it doesnt help your standing with anyone.
Sometimes you can be right and win your argument but you still end up being wrong.
As for the "cliffhanger"...what a crock....just show us what happened.
Is there anyone who was watching last night, not going to tune in on Sunday because they know who won the fire challenge?
I dont think so.
If that is the case what is the point?
I would have to think that anyone who wins immunity they would be a fool to take Cerie and Cerie has zero chance in a stamina challenge.
So that only leave 3 possible final 2.
Aras vs Terry.
This will be the most likely secenario.
I would have to give the vote to Aras.
Probably a vote right down tribal lines 5-2
Aras vs Daniell
Once again....Aras
Terry vs Daniell
Too close to call....would depend on the closing arguments.
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| 58 | beastiemiked
ID: 18301915
Fri, May 12, 2006, 14:06
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Didn't they say it would be the closest vote ever? So presumably, 4-3 in favor of someone. That pretty much eliminates Cirie.
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| 59 | weykool
ID: 394849
Fri, May 12, 2006, 14:13
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Season 1 was 4-3....how do you get any closer than that?
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| 60 | J
Leader
ID: 10171012
Fri, May 12, 2006, 15:20
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I thought the said closest challenge ever?
Whatever, they never say anything meaningful in those "teases".
The to be continued thing is such a croc, who cares???????????
Go Cirie!!!!
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| 61 | J
ID: 13443921
Sun, May 14, 2006, 20:21
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so how many people forgot the finale was on tonight???
just missed the first 20 minutes!
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| 62 | beastiemiked
ID: 36428317
Sun, May 14, 2006, 21:16
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Aras sitting pretty right now. Danielle only wins if Aras completely screws up.
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| 63 | WiddleAvi
ID: 3022278
Sun, May 14, 2006, 21:56
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How stupid is Danielle? Pick a number between 1 and a Mill. and Aras picks 4. Am I the only one who thought ok pick 5?
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| 64 | C1-NRB
ID: 17348117
Sun, May 14, 2006, 23:09
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I thought, "Screw you, Shane. 999,996."
Danielle had no chance either way. She knew both Aras and Terry would take her because they would never take each other. She would have been *slightly* better off and just a little bit of an underdog if she had been the one "carried" into the final two. Then maybe it would have felt a little more dramatic.
She was guaranteed to lose the million to Aras, though.
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| 65 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 15372923
Sun, May 14, 2006, 23:43
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10 wasn't too bad a pick...4 was the idiotic pick...between 1 and a million and you choose 4??? The only way 4 is the right answer is if she picked 3 before him.
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| 66 | J
ID: 13443921
Mon, May 15, 2006, 00:09
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I really don't think it mattered what number anyone picked, he was voting for Danielle.
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| 67 | ChicagoTRS
ID: 15426514
Mon, May 15, 2006, 10:52
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I think he actually did go with the closest to the number...he put the number on his vote...
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| 68 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, May 15, 2006, 11:15
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Neither one of them must have grown up with the price is right, or understanded the closest wins concept.
It would have been funny if after Aras said 4, Danielle should have said 4 too and forced Shane into picking one of them. That is since she had no chance of getting 4 votes anyway.
I believe in season 1, when the vote was also 4-3, Hatch got the deciding vote because one of the bitter jurors also did the 'pick a number I could care less' thing.
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| 69 | katietx
ID: 10415920
Mon, May 15, 2006, 12:15
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If Danielle had a brain, she'd hurt herself. Oh, wait, she did. ;-)
I'm wondering what the time lapse is between the final vote and the show in NY? Aras certainly looked as though he gained quite a bit of weight.
Guess the so-call spoiler in the now deleted #48 was wrong, wrong, wrong.
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| 70 | beastiemiked
ID: 18301915
Mon, May 15, 2006, 12:26
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I'm sure it was leaked that Danielle made the finals and everyone started betting on her hoping she'd win since theoretically she'd have a 50/50 shot.
I saw where Jeff made a comment that Danielle was one of the worst survivor players ever. I'd have to agree. How does she not throw the final immunity challenge and let Terry or Aras take her to the finals?
Looking back I really wish Cirie would've won the fire challenge. That would have set up a much more fitting final of Aras and Terry
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| 71 | weykool
ID: 394849
Mon, May 15, 2006, 12:45
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First season was indeed decided by who was closest to a number between 1 and 10.
And it Hatch used the "price is right strategy".
I always shake my head about Richard Hatch going on about his masterful strategy when he won by "pick a numberbetween 1 and 10".
Survivor reminds me of the coin flipping game between 3 people.
Odd man wins both quarters.
If one person flips head and the other flips tails...you lose no matter what you flip.
No matter who Daniell picked she was going to finish #2.
If she doesnt "backstab" her tribemates they vote her out and she doesnt even win the 100K.
She played a great game and made the best decisions that were presented to her.
It seems to me the final immunity challenge was skewed to the lightest person.
Her platform was still above water while Terry and Aras were below water when the were standing.
They should have adjusted the thickness to accommodate the difference in weight...just like they did in the "support your weight" challenge.
Seems like Terry missed his chance to make the point that....we made a promise and I wouldnt change my mind based on who I can win the money with.
I know he said something to that effect.....but he should have been a little more clear/forceful...she was still thinking about her "choice" when he made the statement and it didnt sink in enough.
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| 72 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, May 15, 2006, 14:10
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[69] I'm wondering what the time lapse is between the final vote and the show in NY?
My understanding is that this one wrapped filming the first week of December.
Based on what I have seen from the contestant applications (No, I have not applied) -
The fall 'season' shows are filmed usually from the last week in June through the first week of August with the finale airing in mid-December, and the spring 'season' shows are filmed beginning the first week of November through mid-December with the finale airing mid May.
Supposedly when the finale aired for Guatamala last December, Probst was only back in the US from the Panama tapings, within 48 hours of the live episode.
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| 73 | PuNk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Mon, May 15, 2006, 15:07
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Did they show a preview of the next installment?
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| 74 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, May 15, 2006, 16:09
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The season 13 setting is the Cook Islands. The promo said an 'exile island' will again come into play.
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| 75 | Mat Cauthon
ID: 19424168
Tue, May 16, 2006, 14:49
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Re: #69, et al,
Wikipedia has this to say about when the episode was taped:
"Survivor: Panama - Exile Island premiered on 2 February 2006. Filming started on 31 October 2005 in the Pearl Islands of Panama, marking the third time this location has been used for Survivor. Bruce Kanegai became the second person to leave in the history of the show due to a medical emergency . The season concluded with Aras Baskauskas defeating Danielle DiLorenzo by a vote of 5-2."
And as for the final immunity challenge--they always, always skew in ways so that the person you think least likely to win has a better shot. More often than not (and I'm not trying to be sexist here), the person who is made out to look like the "underdog" in the final challenges is a woman. But most of the final immunity challenges they design are better for women. For instance, women have an advantage in endurance challenges where it's a hold-your-own-weight challenge, or where they have to stand on something for the longest amount of time. In our latest immunity challenge, Danielle had a huge advantage because of her relatively slight weight, since her lily pad remained out of the water and easier to balance.
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| 76 | J
Leader
ID: 10171012
Tue, May 16, 2006, 15:14
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maybe, but her silicon made it tougher on her to stay upright! =)
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