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Subject: RIHC - Draft discussion thread #1
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sat, Oct 04, 2003, 13:13
This thread will be used for discussion of the draft picks in the RotoGuru Invitational Hoops Challenge league. The picks are presented in a separate thread, but managers are expected to provide a brief rationale for each pick in this thread. Others should feel free to make comments here as well. The purpose of this thread is to explore the thought processes behind the draft picks, and to challenge and/or question the assumptions behind them.
In addition, if there are procedural issues related to the draft, they can be raised here. As this thread gets to be lengthy, I will create successor threads.
A draft recap is also available for convenient reference. |
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.] |
| 178 | Dave R
Dude
ID: 1367294
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 12:42
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Doug , check your email
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| 179 | hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 59923214
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 13:15
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the LaFrentz trade still needs league approval - pending that approval LaFrentz will be a steal
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| 180 | hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 59923214
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 13:16
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to clairfy - I mean offical NBA approval not our fantasy league :)
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| 181 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 13:27
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Crap... looks like I left my computer at home on... you can reach me at:
turbulent_bliss@yahoo.com
dtaylor@blueshiftgames.com
However, email sent to my other account I will not have access to until very, very late tonight (if at all)... so probably best NOT use the following address to discuss trades.
dijital@pacbell.net
Dave R, I haven't received anything from you, so I can only assume you sent it to my home address... would it be a hassle to ask you to resend to an alternate address provided above?
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| 182 | lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 14:22
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Ouch! Not a good morning for my roster at all ... guess it doesn't matter how good of shape Antoine is in with all those forwards in Dallas. I guess I can just fool myself into hoping there's another trade waiting to happen next to clear someone out of there. Or I hope Don Nelson can come up with his next crazy scheme that still gets Antoine some good numbers. If I say it enough times, maybe I'll even start to believe it.
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| 183 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 15:26
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ukula - you get a little extra bonus with your last pick.
Okur is eligible at F and C.
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| 184 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 27652109
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 17:51
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Dave R just finished off the queue I brought to work. Sorry, but there will be a slight 2 hour delay unless Dave R wished to trade McKie for my next pick. :)
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| 185 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 20:40
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At the risk of alienating everyone, here is what my projectiosn show after 12 rounds -- assuming the players selected are starters. The only real adjustments I made were downward for Webber and I gave Raef a big upswing from where he was.
1 Swish 67
2 Dave R 63
3 rfs 57
4 Doug 55
5 BJ21 54
6 Rand 53
7 Lion 53
8 CC 51
9 Klyce 49
10 Guru 48
11 Ukula 47
12 pfb 27
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| 186 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 20:53
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Here are mine. I did make an adjustment for Webber this time, and I also bumped up LaFrentz today.
1 Guru 63
2 lion 61
3 rfs 60
4 Doug 60
5 Klyce 55
6 ukula 54
7 Swish 53
8 Dave R 51
9 bj21 47
10 Rand 45
11 CC 42
12 pfb 34
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| 187 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 20:56
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I guess we'll have to play the season out.
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| 188 | Dave R
Dude
ID: 1367294
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 21:03
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I guess we are done for the evening with Swish and Edgar due to pick
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| 189 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Mon, Oct 20, 2003, 21:05
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Nah, let's all publish our rankings, aggregate them. High score wins. Saves us the time/hassle of actually playing the season. ;-)
FWIW, I plan to post my rankings as well sometime in the near future.
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| 190 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 2730280
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 01:56
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FYI, my pick 13.07 is coming up soon and I'm PST, so won't be making it until late AM tomorrow at the soonest. Also I'm discussing a trade which may affect that pick, etc.
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| 191 | Swish City
Leader
ID: 34634306
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 05:29
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Guys, we are aware we are up next. It's possible that we might not be ready to pick until around 2 or 3pm GMT - we are currently discussing a possible trade involving our current pick. Apologies for any hold up, but unfortunately its one of the problems of the dreaded 5 hour time difference.
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| 192 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 08:57
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No problem, Swish, but thanks for cluing us in.
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| 193 | lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:16
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Just a general offer to anybody out there coming up - I'm interested in acquiring a draft selection in the next couple of picks. If anybody out there is interested in F/C Dale Davis and thinks he compares favorably to anybody you can pick up in the draft right now, I would be interested in trading him straight up for a current pick. Email me at the address listed on the link with my name here - I'm afraid I will be away for about an hour and a half but will reply right away when I get back.
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| 194 | Swish City
Leader
ID: 34634306
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:27
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We picked, just to let everyone know. No trade was made.
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| 195 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 12:47
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Gentlemen - we are making excellent draft progress, and it looks like we should complete before the weekend.
We are lagging way behind in rationales, however. To accelerate this, I am now asking each of you to email your rationales to me through at least round 10. Please send these ASAP. I will create a series of placeholders, and then splice them in as I receive them. I'd like to get updated through round 10 by the end of today, if possible.
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| 196 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 14:25
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***TRADE ANNOUNCEMENT***
Doug sends:
Andre Miller and Raef LaFrentz
to RFS in exchange for:
Vince Carter and Reggie Miller
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| 197 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 27652109
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 14:34
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And I confirm the deal.
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| 198 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 27652109
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 14:36
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Guru, I'll e-mail you my rationales this afternoon and some thoughts on the trade that was just posted (assuming you want rationale behind those moves?)
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| 199 | lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 15:02
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Wow, nice trade guys. On first glance I can't even pick one side or the other I would prefer to be on, well balanced and lots of players heading into new circumstances. If I had to pick a side I think I'd like RFS's acquisitions, but then I have a hard time thinking objectively about Reggie Miller. I would definately be interested in hearing rationales on the trade.
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| 200 | Mike D
Donor
ID: 41831612
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 15:03
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The rationale is that RFS is just feeding his need. No other explanation needed. ;)
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| 201 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 15:11
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sounds good
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| 202 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 15:31
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I'll include my trade rationale in my 12.06 rationale.
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| 203 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 19:32
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So I will likewise risk alienation and put up my projections. OBVIOUSLY these are biased towards myself, as I drafted players who were rated highly on my own projections... and with the nature of the game, injuries, overacheivers, underachievers, trades, etc... PLEASE NOTE I put little stock in these numbers. I just think they're a lot of fun to play with until the season ACTUALLY starts... please don't be overly encouraged/offended/defensive/etc.
I also took the liberty of compiling RFS and Guru's "through 12 rounds" stats with my own (last 3 columns) I think it's interesting to note that we have very similar estimates for some teams and not for others. There may be changes based on today's trade as well. Anyway, I find the following to be of note:
Blackjack - Not sure why our projections are so variable here (2nd, 5th, and 9th)... perhaps RFS and Guru must discounted Kobe more than I did. Being a Laker fan, I don't want to discount him too highly! =-) Time will tell... he's obviously the biggest X factor in the fantasy hoops world at this time.
Swish & Edgar - Rated #1 by RFS, but #9 and #10 by myself and Guru respectively. Not sure why this is... best guess is that RFS rated Carmelo higher than Guru and myself. Kinda suprised by our descrepancy on this one.
Guru - I hope Guru's crystal ball is clearer than mine or that of RFS! =-) Well, ok... I don't actually hope it's clearer than mine, in fact, I doubt any of us actually own one... but you get the idea. Not suprising that Guru would come in first in his own rankings though (just as it's not suprising I'm first in my own). But it IS kinda suprising that RFS isn't first in his OWN rankings! =-)
Philflyboy - Ouch... 12 / 12 / 12... now just watch him suprise us all and win. Doesn't it always seem to work out that way?!? ;-)
| PTS | RB | AST | 3PM | STL | BLK | FT% | FG% | | TOTAL | | Doug | Guru | RFS | | Doug | 12 | 11 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | | 77 | | 1 | 4 | 4 | | Blackjack | 5 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 7 | | 66 | | 2 | 9 | 5 | | RFS | 6 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 3 | | 58 | | 3 | 3 | 3 | | Lionpride | 11 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | | 57 | | 4 | 2 | 7 | | Rand | 7 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 3 | 5 | | 53 | | 5 | 10 | 6 | | Dave R | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 10 | | 52 | | 6 | 8 | 2 | | Ukula | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 6 | | 52 | | 7 | 6 | 11 | | Swish & Edgar | 4 | 5 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 8 | | 46 | | 8 | 7 | 1 | | Guru | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 11 | | 43 | | 9 | 1 | 10 | | Hoops Klyce | 8 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9 | | 43 | | 10 | 5 | 9 | | Coldwater | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | | 40 | | 11 | 11 | 8 | | Philflyboy | 2 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 4 | | 37 | | 12 | 12 | 12 |
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| 204 | hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 19:42
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yahoo! I am a 9 in FT% with Shaq!
If I did the rankings based on my projections I would think I would necessarily be number 1 - anyone who ranks by their projections should be number 1 I would think by definition
but anyway - thanks for the great analysis - looks like I should draft some blocks now!
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| 205 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 20:30
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Yeah... I agree on your point regarding projections (which I made myself), but is also why I'm a bit suprised RFS wasn't first in his own projections!!! =-) Just to be clear, 12 is actually BEST in the category rankings... that's how many points you get... i.e., I have you predicted as best in blocks, not worst, etc... just to clarify in case that was vague. The "rankings" on the right are in the opposite order, where #1 is preferable.
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| 206 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 461124288
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 20:41
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Well, just to be clear, after my trade w/ Doug, I have myself tied for 2nd. And, yes, these are just for fun, but they do make a nice guide to "tel" you where to pick as opposd to play it by feel. I was often surpirsed at how much certain player hurt particular categories for me as I plugged them in.
I'm puzzled at the difference in the Swish team too. I have Stoud, Ming, Anthony, and Boozer all ranked higher than many sites. And, of course, T-mac is cleary a #1-type player.
As it pertains to Guru's team, I suspect I have Ward, Damon, Terry, Harpring, and Foyle (who still hold a grudge against) rated lower that him.
Of course, even if you put stock in these rankings (which I don't), so much more of the game revolves aroumnd FA and WW pick ups, trades and roster management. That's the best part of the season.
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| 207 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 21:05
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Doug, you do have hoopsklyce last in blocks, as do I. He has a "1" in blocks.
I'll post my category breakdowns as well when I get a chance. Got a few other tasks to do first.
I didn't adjust Kobe down, however, so that doesn't explain anything.
And I always come out #1 in this type of analysis, since I am picking based on my own bias. There are clearly some players that I didn't take who I have rated too low, but if someone else picks them before I consider them, I generally don't make adjustments, which creates an even bigger bias in my favor.
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| 208 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 21:36
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Whoops... I confused hoopsklyce with blackjack!!! My bad!
One player of yours who I think I would change my rating of was Charlie Ward. I figured he and Eisley would split like last year, but lately it sounds like Ward is getting the starting nod (moreso than last year) so he probably needs a boost...
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| 209 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 21:59
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Here is my ranking grid: | Rank | Team | Pts | Ass | Reb | Stl | Blk | 3pt | FT% | FG% | Total | | 1 | Guru | 5 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 64 | | 2 | Doug | 10 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 61 | | 3 | lion | 11 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 60 | | 4 | Klyce | 12 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 55 | | 5 | rfs | 7 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 54 | | 6 | ukula | 9 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 54 | | 7 | Dave R | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 52 | | 8 | Swish | 3 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 52 | | 9 | bj21 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 49 | | 10 | Rand | 6 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 46 | | 11 | CC | 8 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 41 | | 12 | pfb | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 37 | | | | | | | | | | | |
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| 210 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 22:00
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BTW, this differs a little from the one above because it reflects the latest trade. (Doug-rfs)
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| 211 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Tue, Oct 21, 2003, 23:15
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We made some good progress on the rationales today, although I'm still awaiting about half of the round 6-10 pick writeups. Those who have not sent them in, please do so ASAP. Thanks to those who did sent them in.
Feel free to continue with the 11th round rationales, since we're already cruising through round 13 in "real time".
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| 212 | Swish City
Leader
ID: 34634306
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 06:19
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I'll send our rationales for rounds 6-10 at lunchtime. I'll also do the round 11 Bosh rationale at that point. If you want to placehold that just now, i'll email it with the rest of the rationales.
Considering rankings, we obviously rate ourselves #1 in our rankings too ;) I am baffled by our variance in other peoples rankings. There are a few areas we think we're very strong in that we are rated very poorly in other people's rankings. I guess we'll just have to shake it out when the season starts.
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| 213 | hoopsklyce
Leader
ID: 5392426
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 10:41
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I am projected second in the league in FT% with Shaq per Guru!!!
I would think that kind of performance with Shaq would be unprecedented
so.....who wants to trade to me some of their block surplus?????
per Guru, Dave R and bj are the prime candidates
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| 214 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 10:43
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I just found a minor error in my standings spreadsheet that had the effect of ruining the value of Carlos Boozer. When I fixed that, the Swish team moved into a tie for first with me. Reading across, the Swish rankings are now
6 9 9 9 10 9 3 7
All other teams adjust downward slightly.
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| 215 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 10:46
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hoopsklyce - I noticed that! I thought it was remarkable that a team with Shaq could be last in blocks and almost 1st in FT%.
BTW, these are based on the stats for the first 12 players picked, so Marc Jackson is not in your teams totals (since he was a 13th rounder).
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| 216 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 27652109
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 16:02
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FYI- I might be out this afternoon. I left a 3 player queue w/ Guru so I should be covered. Good draft all, look forward to hearing everyone's summaries/recaps.
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| 217 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 16:53
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We're in the final round now. We should finish by sometime tomorrow.
I have been entering the draft picks into Yahoo all along. Please check here and make sure I have the correct roster for you. Some picks will appear out of sequence if you had any trades, but the players should all be on the correct teams, including the impact of trades.
I have set up this league with a 2 day waiver period. Thus, once the draft is complete and the league is activated, all undrafted players should be on waivers for 2 days. Waiver priority should be in reverse draft order. Following the waiver period, unclaimed players will be free agents and immediately available to anyone. However, as I recall, free agents are not available to fill an active slot on the same day. They are first available on the following day. In other words, you must pick up a free agent on Monday in order to be able to get his stats on Tuesday.
Once you've finished your picks, please send me all of your remaining rationales. I'd like to get them posted ASAP, and it will go quicker if you simply email them me so I can copy and paste them into place.
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| 218 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Wed, Oct 22, 2003, 16:54
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In addition to the individual player rationales, I will set up a separate thread for your overall draft reactions. I'll wait for the draft to end before doing this. You'll be on your own to make your comment for that. There will be no required sequence of comments.
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| 219 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 31649212
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:09
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I think splitting the rationales into two threads was wise... and I have my "overall recap/reaction" post all ready to go once that thread is started.
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| 220 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Thu, Oct 23, 2003, 16:27
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Draft picks have now been entered into Yahoo. Please review and make sure I have teh correct players on each team.
I plan to activate the league sometime tonight. If so, then I suspect that undrafted players will clear waivers late Saturday or early Sunday.
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| 221 | lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 906204
Fri, Oct 24, 2003, 03:36
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If Guru doesn't mind, I thought I would propose a few more thoughts for the overall Draft Recap Thread:
In reading around, I liked a few of the specific questions that the mock draft participants took turns answering on ESPN.com. I know Guru had referenced a few of the same thoughts in his opening statement, but it would be interesting to hear people's specific answers on a few things, either along with or in addition to the general draft overview that some have already posted. Here are the things that I thought would be fun:
1) Your best and worst pick, in retrospect.
2) The 2 or 3 picks by other managers that you thought were especially good steals.
3) 2 or 3 players that were selected higher than you had expected.
4) If you had to trade your own team for one other owner's team in the league, whose would you want it to be?
5) Any other surprises?/Additional questions
These were just my initial thoughts, if everybody else thinks it's a good idea I'll get around to posting my own thoughts to them in the next day or two (probably in the general overview thread?). Feel free to add in any questions you would want to be answered as well, and it could be intersting to hear any non-league manager's thoughts on these as well.
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| 222 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Fri, Oct 24, 2003, 09:36
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Sounds good.
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| 223 | Doug
Sustainer
ID: 2730280
Fri, Oct 24, 2003, 11:50
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I already put in a monster post and am headed out for the weekend. So I'll let others put up some feedback first and then on Monday or therebouts I'll address the questions lionpride suggested. I like the idea!
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| 224 | lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 906204
Mon, Oct 27, 2003, 02:21
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Hey guys,
I've been looking around in Yahoo's rules section but can't seem to find an answer to this. My apologies if it is there, but I thought maybe someone with some yahoo experience might be able to answer this before the season starts:
Regarding the max # of games played for each position, if a player is injured and does not play in his team's game that night, does that team's game still count against the games played for that position?
For example, let's say I have Antoine Walker for Tuesday's opener in Los Angeles. Antoine decides to drive his own car to the game after visiting Disneyland that day and gets stuck in our great LA traffic, and never makes it to Staples Center. Since he was active on my roster, and his team (Dallas) played a game when he was active, does that then count against my game limit? So do I have 82 games still remaining from my positional limit, or just 81 now?
Curious heading into the season, I know this could affect how some of us treat gametime decision types of injuries. Speaking of injuries, I also can't seem to figure out how to place McDyess on the IL since he's officially been put there by NY. Assuming it's not activated yet, but let me know if I'm missing something.
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| 225 | rockafellerskank
Leader
ID: 27652109
Mon, Oct 27, 2003, 08:13
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lionprideguy, You are only charged a game if your player enters the game (no matter how brief). If he twists his ankle on the jump ball, that counts. If he DNPs for any reason, it won't count as a game. This is based on the rules from last year, assuming they haven't changed.
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| 226 | Guru
ID: 330592710
Mon, Oct 27, 2003, 08:37
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I assume that Yahoo has simply not listed any players on the IR yet. Once they do, you should have that option to move a player to your injured slot.
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| 227 | lionprideguy
Sustainer
ID: 289471616
Mon, Oct 27, 2003, 13:21
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haha - "if he twists his ankle on the jump ball, that counts." Anybody else read that and think it was foreshadowing for Marcus Camby?
Thanks for the help!
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