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Subject: Baseball 2007 Draft analysis and discussion
Posted by: Seattle Zen
- [49112418] Fri, Mar 30, 2007, 16:01
Political Baseball 2007
The RIBC leagues have these post-draft discussions that are interesting once in a while, I thought I’d do something similar. Looking over everyone’s keepers, I think the teams at the bottom have done a better job than in years past of having seven serviceable players. I will give the 2007 Karim Garcia Award to Commish Dude yet again for John Patterson, who isn’t too terrible, actually.
My “draft philosophy” this year is pretty close to what it has been most years: put together a solid team, draft for value and upside. I started preparing for the draft in January and in earnest in late Feb. I was really surprised to see Tree leave Aramis Ramirez off his list, was really hoping that Toral would leave Ben Sheets off, and surprised Pancho kept two closers over Johnny Damon. Really, wise keeper decisions all around.
I REALLY wanted Aramis and tried to pry the first pick from that Punk to no avail. While I need Damon’s five cat ability, certainly his steals, Aramis is young and quite a slugger. In my mind, the drop between Aramis to Johnny was the largest one-pick drop in the draft. Oh, well. I thought about Billy Wagner, but I figured I could load up on closers later and I was right.
I have never entered into a season with as many quality starting arms as this year. Having Daisuke as essentially an eighth keeper allowed me to start off with three top 20 starters. Every year I start the season with one or two starters who just stink up the joint, who pitch so poorly that my ERA and WHIP don’t recover. I want to avoid that at all costs. I needed only one quality arm, so I could gamble with someone young who could blossom into full fledged stud and I believe that Cole Hamels is that guy. I love Jered Weaver and seriously considered him as well, but there were so many reports about his sore arm that I was leary. Funny, someone considered riskier than Hamels! I like his attitude, I like the Phils this year, and I really like his stuff. Because there were 98 keepers, Cole Hamels was in essence the 104th pick. In a keeper league, that is not a stretch.
After trading away Michael Young, I was in the unenviable position of having to fill both middle infield positions. Ten SS’s were keepers on nine teams this year, leaving just me, PD, Sox, AF, and Punk. The best SS’s in my mind were Lugo, Hall, Renteria, and Cabrera. Who I picked up at SS and 2nd would be vital to my success this year – without one of those four SS’s, I would have been f’ed, in my mind. I thought I would pick up Lugo with my second round pick, but when Sox took him before me, that was my first real disappointment. Yeah, I wanted Josh Barfield, but Pancho took him at least two rounds too early.
The good thing about a slow draft (the only good thing) is when your guy is picked in front of you, you have time to reconsider. I did not target Richie Sexson this year. He started horribly last season, not so horribly that he should have been released (Ahem… Sox), but his second half was lights out (.304 AVE/20 HR’s). Rotowire predicts that he hits .272/40 HR’s/120 RBI/89 Runs and made him the 52nd best overall player. I already have Morneau, so Richie was slated for Util. He was the screaming most obvious value on the board, with Giambi and Gordon next, so I pulled the trigger.
I am a little surprised at this point that there are so many closers still on the board. I have never started the season with three closers and I made it a point to do so this year. I really like Brian Fuentes because he is a proven 30 saves closer with no competition on a team that will win more games this year. He has learned to thrive at Coors, maybe the first pitcher to ever do so. If Wiggs had taken Fuentes rather than Gagne, I would have been crushed and at a complete loss.
I think it was around this point that I realized that those of us without SS’s were going to basically ignore that position for a while and why not? With ten teams already set, it was highly unlikely that someone was going to snatch up Renteria or Cabrera to play at Util. I figured AF would take Edgar, he’s drawn to Braves like Baldwin to old guys. All I had to do was wait for Cabrera, who I think will have a good season and steal quite a few bases. Second base is a little different. There were more teams in need, good squads like Tree and MBJ, but there was a wider talent pool – I’m using the word “talent” loosely. I wanted Jeff Kent, the old guy, because I saw that he is likely to bat clean up in Chavez Ravine. Now that Bonds is no longer with the franchise, Jeff would be welcome. Brandon Phillips would also look good with SZ across his chest.
Bam, Corey Patterson is taken by Pancho. Damn it, I thought I could get him in the fourth round. I seriously thought about keeping him over Chipper. There goes Brandon Phillips, Kei Igawa (?), Khalil Greene – WHA!? AF takes Brittle Fingers over his homey Renteria? Wow. With Phillips gone, I gladly grab Kent and feel good. I know at this point that steals are going to be a real challenge this year, oh, well. RBI’s will be strong.
One of my sleeper picks this year was Jose Valverde. He lost his job last year for a stretch and finished with a piss poor ERA, but his peripherals were outstanding. He strikes out more guys than most anyone. He finished the season strong. The only difference between him and Francisco Cordero is that Cordero has a longer track record. I like Valverde to strike out 12.5 batters per 9 innings and save over 30 games for a resurgent DBacks squad. Seeing S. Torres going just five picks later cemented my belief that I picked him right at the right time. I wanted to avoid Todd Jones because he was lucky not only to record so many saves with such horrible pitching, but this year I can’t imagine Leland letting him keep his job as the Tigers come back down to Earth. A. Benitez’s knees are awful and I don’t trust him. I now feel that my pitching staff is very strong.
At this point, only PD and I have no SS and there are two players left whom I would be happy with. I feel confident that no one will take Edgar or Orlando at this point in the draft, so I let them slide. I don’t like any catcher at his point, so I start looking for value. In 2005 Jermaine Dye had a great year and everyone (or at least I) thought, wow, isn’t that guy playing on a prosthetic leg below the knee from that time he fouled a ball of it in the playoffs? People didn’t give him that much credit and in 2006 he BLEW UP. Well, I think that’s what’s going to happen with The Big Hurt. Frank is healthy, playing DH, batting clean up in the middle of a strong line-up and will lead a charge down the stretch to try to catch the Yanks and BoSox. He screamed value and I jumped. Yeah, screw stolen bases! Frank was pick 168. At Mock Draft Central, he is picked an average at 104. In 390 mock drafts, the lowest he went was 147. I think he was a steal.
Speaking a steals, I’m hurting. I did not target Pods this year. I took him too early last year and when CoPat blew up early, I unloaded Pods. Everyone knows that his stolen base success rate is sliding, he’s not getting on base often enough, he’s old and has bad hammys. But I need steals and at number 182, he’s a small investment. Funny that Coco Crisp was picked right ahead of him – in 2005 Toral had both, choose to keep Crisp and release Pods, now both are in the second half of drafts. Bili’s Blalock pick may be the steal of the round, but his splits are so horrible you wonder how he ever accomplished his 2003 & 2004 seasons.
John Maine, hmm. Is he Canadian? Did he start a chapter of the Federalist Society of Baseball Players? Did he speak at the Anglican convention? Daniel Cabrera. Hey, if we had a World Baseball Classic fantasy league, he would be money. If the plate was widened by two feet, he’d be lights out. I really like the other picks made this round. I was hoping to pick Cory Hart a few rounds later thinking he’d slide under the radar, didn’t realize he was a KY boy. So when Rich Hill was still available, I was really pleased. Even if he flames out, I okay with that. I’ve got four quality starters and there are always a few surprises each year. Rich has tremendous upside and Dusty Baker can’t ruin his arm.
Just a few picks before, PD snagged Orlando Cabrera. I figured he would take Renteria. Now I know it is time, so I spend the whole round biting my nails. Rentaria has to be at the top of people’s Best Available list by now. We are in the 200’s and Edgar is ranked 98th at Mock Draft Central. When Sox doesn’t pick Weds. night, I have fitful sleep, actually waking up at 5am hoping that my strategy hasn’t backfired. I get my man at number 210. What a steal. I can thank the fact that this is a 14 team league and not 15 or 16. I got a shortstop as the 210th player who compares to the guy I traded away as such
Renteria: .290/100runs/14HR’s/70rbi’s/17steals
Young: .314/93runs/14HR’s/103rbi’s/7 steals
Michael Young is great, but I’m liking my trade more and more.
I was sad to see Pedro go, knowing I am calling up Daisuke meant I could draft someone and place them on the DL. Oh, well.
This year more than any other I am getting the guys I want a round or two later than I expected. I’m not just talking sleepers, either, I’m getting guys well below where they are being drafted else where. Young players with upside. I targeted Mark Teahen this season as the forecasters were singing songs of .300/30Hr’s/100 rbi’s/20 steals. Yes, he is moving to the outfield so the Royals could attract an extra 1,000 paying customers with Alex Gordon at third. Teahen will be in the line up every day and I have to imagine that he’ll make at least 5 appearances at the Hot Corner, keeping his 3rd eligibility for next year. My draft was in essence over with this pick, I was so happy with my squad, I giggled! Johnny Estrada will be a great catcher for the Brewers. With my line up, all I want from my catcher is a high batting average.
I love middle relievers who pick up wins. Linebrink has won 7,8,and 7 games in the last three years. If Trevor Hoffman’s arm falls off, I’m golden.
There are players on the Wire I would love to have on my bench but I will always vote against increasing the bench size. One weakness my team suffers from is I only have one multiple position player, Jeff Kent, who also qualifies at First, woo hoo! Sure, I would like to have a back up middle infielder, but short benches allow teams to recover from injuries.
As much as I enjoy this league, I must say that I actually HATE the draft. It is a very stressful week for me and I’m embarrassed to say that I lose sleep. Long pauses in between picks drives me up the wall. We all have better things to do than sit there waiting for someone to make a pick. I get real burnt out by the end, so this year when I got to sign off on Friday after the 12th round, I was damn happy. Should be a great year, wish everyone good luck.
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| 1 | Baldwin
ID: 3503618
Fri, Mar 30, 2007, 21:45
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Round 1
I just hated hated hated virtually all but a handful of the remaining closers. Most of the remaining will cost a high pick and have a HIGH chance of losing their job. I would have gladly picked Wagner or F. Cordero if they had fallen.
Thome however is the perfect homer pick, by no means too early. I had him targetted last year and played the game of chicken like everyone else letting him drop farther than we all knew he would produce. Unfortunately lost the game to MBJ [I think] last year. As a result I got to watch home games all year and as often as not it was Thome and not my Konerko jacking one that day. A real anguish all year.
Round 2
Would have taken Rolen or Bedard had they dropped.
Gordon was a huge health concern to me until I read his local papers and also heard radio analysts explain it was just a precautionary checkup of a common problem for him every preseason. Very happy to welcome back Gordon after all.
Round 3
Hated PD taking 'my' Ibanez here. Much more than CC taking 'my' Helton whom I've given up on at this point. Will sure miss his BA tho.
Clemens was admittedly a reach here but I am 100% convinced he has been gaming the system the last season and this, deliberately spending an extra 2 months with his family and taking care of his playoff jones at the same time. If he has lost any skills you will have to prove it to me.
Round 4
After Soriano lost his 2B status and I lost the best infield in the league I sure hated that Barfield and Phillips were gone even if I thot they went too early.
Loved Punk's Wainright. Liked Bili's Markakis and Wigg's Maggs picks and kinda hoped one would slip to me but no.
Expected to be choosing between Mussina and Bonds here and was biting my nails after Mussina was picked, that Bonds would fall.
Round 6
SZ took my F. Thomas and I was fuming of course. All the years I kept his sorry patootie for nothin. At least I got him last year. Either that was a fluke staying healthy last year or he finally has learned his poutty spoiled self needs to produce every year to get paid and has turned a character corner. Who can say?
Scott Olsen was one of my key sleepers that I fully expected to grab in both my keeper leagues and couldn't get him in either. Argh.
Honestly Anibel Sanchez is a safer pick for this year but I've been following Olsen for years expecting big things. Not unhappy with the pitcher I did get.
Round 7
Loved Nerve's Tracy pick.
Assuming Clemens plays I've got 4 studs already in my book and here I took a flyer on Cabrera who I feel has a world of upside and quite a bit of short term risk. All the factors that made him last year's runaway favorite breakout prospect are still in play. Just a matter of time with this guy. If I wasn't so happy with my first four [Smoltz, Haren, Cleens, Anibel Sanchez]I might have picked a safer pitcher tho.
Round 8
Really expected to steal a 3'rd closer while everyone else was expecting Wood was the better bet to close but I wasn't the only one who had that figured out and Bili took Dempster.
Took care of my hole in 2B instead. If you believe in Bonds this year then you should believe in Durham. Last 2B I felt was safe not to kill me in any category. Marcus Giles would have been a nice fallback position I guess but I really think Bonds wants to get this torture over with and I just think he is 100% healthy and raring to go and still totally feared by pitchers. Thus I believe in those batting near Bond's in the order.
Round 9
I fully expected Robertson would be a safe very late pick for my backup pitcher but Punk surprised me here.
Liked Nerve's Bonser.
I know a lot about Contreras so I can accept the risk more than most I guess. He will pitch lights out half the time and pitch like he has zero faith in himself the other half of the time. The trick is to sit him the right periods. I will be watching his radar reading every game. When he loses that fastball speed...now understand his other stuff is just outrageously good even if he loses 5 MPH on his fastball but he seems to become a headcase when it does. Even if he is a load to manage he is still a strikeout pitcher with a powerful offense and a good defense behind him. Wins and K's out of your fifth pitcher? He could hurt my ERA and WHIP and still win more games than all your studs. Sign me up for that deal.
Round 10
SZ's Teahan was a great one. I tease him for his youth fixation but I respect his research on it as much.
Wheeler was my only target this round especially after Otsuka was taken. I got both those guys in my other keeper league.
Round 11
Liked Nerve's Shealy, Sox' Liriano [early tho?], Toral's Brian Wilson. If both Otsuka and Wheeler were gone here I would have taken Wilson very possibly. Or I would have figured he'd drop more.
There are few rooks and sophmores I am as confident will someday be keeper-worthy than I am of Hermida. He'll prolly struggle with BA again and plug up a crucial bench slot all year doin nothin for me but I have so few young flyers I could afford one at this point.
Round 12
Had Youkilis targetted all draft long and have him in my other keeper. But got Punked on that plan. He will be a run superstar this year.
Wigginton was my backup plan at 2B/UT but he went too. If Gomes truly emerges Wigginton loses AB's I fear. Wiggington is my 2B [and only weak bat] in my other keeper.
Loved Toral's Victorino pick but Alou is my guy as you guys are well aware. He hasn't had a good preseason [does he care] and the drop-off in bat speed may have already begun. One of those guys with such a keen batting eye, so much baseball instincts and knowlege that he just keeps going and going. Figured someone would take him just to tweak me by this time but this is as far as I wait.
Round 13
Gomes will prolly sit injured and without a starting role just long enuff to need to be dropped and then go on to hit 35 HR a year the rest of his carreer. This bench limitation just kills me.
Round 14
LOVED Wigg's BJ Upton pick. What were we thinking letting him go this long. It's a keeper league. Doh!
Ethier was monumental for me last year but he has a ton of OF competition and doesn't have the minor league numbers to make me pick him earlier so he found a new home.
Winn will like his new manager, will resume SB's and feel unleashed this year. The Bonds factor working on him...Hermida and Gomes will sit and my last pick will be key. Strange but prolly true.
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| 2 | biliruben
ID: 4911361723
Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 09:52
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I didn't draft very well.
I feel like I took players a round or three too early in the beginning.
My bats I like. Players with a nice mix of power with enough speed to keep me competitive in steals.
Round 1:
I took Sheffield because I needed a solid middle cleanup hitter with power in the outfield, and he was the best available. He might have fallen another round but I doubt it. He's old and he's a dick, but he is very talented.
I would have liked a closer here, but the only one I would have taken was Putz, and he had just gotten hurt. It didn't sound serious, but I couldn't take the chance.
Josh Barfield would have been who I would typically have chased if I didn't already have too many second basemen.
Round 2:
I took Adrian too early, given the quality list of third basemen that remained, but I have a good feeling about him this year and I like him.
I thought about Lidge and Schilling here instead.
Round 3:
Okay I really need a closer now. Fuentes is my man.
Farkin' Zen.
No other closer is worth it here, so I take Pettitte, who should thrive in NY and could rack up 20 wins if he stays healthy.
I was surprised to see Gagne go so high. I would have thought about him in a few rounds.
Round 4:
I waited until now to take a chance on an unproven youngster with upside. Markakis is batting 3rd in baltimore. That's gotta give him some numbers.
Everyone else who didn't pick a Dodger wasted their pick.
The rest:
Like I usually do, I target closers a round too late and never get any. Such is life in the world of overrated closers.
I simply targeted people I wanted at this point.
I really think Russell Martin is going to be special. Maybe not for my fantasy team, but for the Dodgers, so I needed him. I took him too early, but couldn't take a chance (see a pattern here?).
Overall I think my bats round out pretty well. I need some help in my pitching staff, but I have Johan, and he makes a lot of holes smaller. Vasquez and Pettite are decent 2 and 3s. I don't have a 4 or 5.
My bullpen is a shambles. Yuck.
If Blalock finds his old stroke, I get lucky in the pen, and I can scrape up a servicable starter or 2 more, I should be able to compete and be near the top. I don't have a lot of room for error however, what with Tree fielding a roster of all-stars top to bottom.
Good luck.
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| 3 | Jag
ID: 14849321
Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 10:08
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Every year a few good closers materialize late, I am not how your waiver wire works, but if that is your biggest hole, it can be the easiest one to fix.
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| 4 | Punk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 10:49
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I feel like I screwed up a few rounds of Baldwin's draft. ;'P That's good to know since I figured my draft was crap haha.
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| 5 | nerveclinic
ID: 105222
Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 14:12
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Going into the draft I felt good about my keepers...until I looked at Tree's.
I had 4 batters arguably in the top 25 Abreu, Wells, Rollins and Berkman.
I had the number 2 ranked starter in Carpenter and chose to keep two of the top rated prospect starters Felix Hernandez and Cain instead of my two top 70 closers Wagner and Putz. If it wasn't a keeper league I would have swapped Wagner for Cain but I saw Cain pitch last year living in SF and if he doesn't get injured he will be a stud. 200 innings is more valuable then 70.
So I made the decision that if Wagner and Putz were gone by my first round pick I wouldn't over pay for crap closers and would build the rest of the team instead. Going light on closers last year brought me from 7th place the year before to my 3rd place finish last year.
Finally going into the draft I had the huge luxury of knowing 2nd base or an 8th keeper was also in the cards with Howie Kendrick to bring up...I can't stress how huge that luxury was.
Like Zen I studied early and often preparing for the draft (Maybe for the same reason, living in a strange new place with time to do it)
1st Round
I was almost relieved to see the closers go and targeted Bill Hall, not just because he's on everyone's sleeper list this year, but also because he can play 3B, SS and soon OF. I will use him to keep all 3 positions from falling behind in games. He would have been a good outfield pick here but the other 2 IF positions iced it for me.
I thought about taking Jerad Weaver but between the injury reports and already owning 2 young stud starters it didn't make sense although I might argue he is an overall stronger choice otherwise.
2nd Round
Several of my top choices fall in front of my pick Baldelli, Borowski, Swisher and with closers falling of the board, and Lidge still rated high (Although with a tough spring) I had to reel him in. Almost took Fuentes instead but there was no way I was taking a risk on Gagne.
3rd Round
Overbay was next on my list for value and the first base spot allows me to move Berkman to the outfield joining Wells and Abreu as a solid OF lineup.
4th Round
Seeing Derek Lowe available as the number 152 pick in the draft gave me the chance to essentially wrap up my starting rotation with 4 solid starters. Now I could focus on value hitters, cheap closers and a decent catcher. There were other "sexy" starters but Lowe is reliable and I had enough pitching "chances" on the table so I went with safety.
5th Round
Here's were I grab my catcher while there are still top 5-6 catchers left (In a year where it's worth taking a quality catcher early.) Baldwin beat me to Ivan and CC beat me to Barret but Ramon was millimeters apart on my draft list. I would be almost as happy with any of the 3.
6th Round
I grab Chad Tracy as the 180th pick when I have him closer to 120 on my draft sheet. This is the beauty of punting closers and hoping to pick up cheap saves. I like Tree's Encarnicion but I had him rated about 20 picks later. We'll see.
7th Round
While I was deciding on this pick it was announced that Hawpe was going to bat 6th in the Colorado line up with Atkins, Helton and Holliday batting in front of him. Most projections on him were based on him batting later in the order so this change added value to someone I was already targeting. Hopefully his ankle injury isn't serious. At this point I am not worrying about position, just filling in the Util slots. I still need some saves though but there's not much quality left.
8th Round
Bonsner has really been under the radar this draft season. I'm not sure why, I like his upside and he's worth the chance at this point in the draft. I thought long and hard about grabbing Carlos Quentin but I think he needs one more year to develop and I am worried about the shoulder injury. I saw what it did to Gomes last year and I didn't want to go through that again. I think Carlos is a steal here though Tree.
9th Round
I like MBJ's Ted Lilly pick here, maybe safer then my Bonsner pick but I went with keeper league mentality.
I told you I am worried about Gagne so I grab Otsuka here. The beauty is that even if Gagne stays healthy Otsuka will get saves (because Tex plans on not over working Gagne), low ERA and whip. There's always the chance he gets half or more of the saves if Gagne isn't well.
I think SZ stole Renteria here and I might have grabbed him if he hadn't, I couldn't believe he was still on the board.
10th Round
Also Love SZ's pick of Teahen here, I would have grabbed him if SZ hadn't.
I liked Freddy Garcia here until I started hearing about his hurt bicep.
I had Ryan Shealy last year and know his potential, this is a keeper league flyer pick. My team is set so now I am taking chances with picks looking for upside and cheap saves.
I now love Baldwins pick of Wheeler, I should have grabbed him earlier but I had his spring performance confused with Brian Wilson of SF...dang.
11th Round
I'm really surprised Kouzmanoff slipped this far in this keeper league. A lot of the attention he got in the press came at the time of this round but everyone is raving about him now...I am thrilled with this pick.
12th Round
Now the infamous Garza pick. I panicked when PD pulled Giles for me instead. I picked Garza assuming he would start the year in the minors, but his upside is so high (Baseball America #21 prospect) I felt in this league he is worth wasting a bench spot for a month or two. Another steal late in the draft IMHO.
13th Round
Macdougal...cheap saves?
14th Round
Insert Howie Kendrick
So my biggest concern going into the season is saves, tough to think I can grab them in this league of hawks, but maybe my number 3 waiver position will pay off. Hopefully sooner rather then later. ;-]
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| 6 | Myboyjack
ID: 8216923
Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 15:39
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Last year I won this league in the draft (stealing Thome in the 2nd round, Joe Borowski in the 8th round and Mike Mussina in the freakin' 13th and completely remaking a starting OF) and then grabbing 3 or more keeper player off the waiver wire in the first week of the season. That taught me that you guy's sucked at preparing for the draft.
Congenially, I thought that I'd reurn the favor this year, so I squirrled my way through this year's draft while having virtually no prep, no daytime computer access, and making most of my picks off the top of my head via phone with Zen or Baldwin while making a Grad Jury presentation.
According, my draft sucked elephant balls this year. Enjoy.
I went into the draft with this team-view:
1. I have no OF.
2. Joel Zumaya will be called up soon.
3. My keepers are still very young.
4. I wanted to target the best player on the board every pick this year and leave it to you guys to leave me plenty of waiver wire scraps to fill in any missing positions:
Round 1
Billy Wagner was 1st on my Q. Adam Dunn was 2nd. So I was delighted to see Dunn around 14 picks into the draft. He's working on contact this year. He's just reaching his prime power years. He's never done roids. I expect him to hit 60 HR this year with a .270+ BA. I'm not kidding.
Round 2
Thanks for Curt Schilling. A lot. Richie Sexson would have been nice here too.
Round 3
At this point I really felt like either I or everyone else was seriously misjudging talent. Cameron was my BPA at the beginning of the round and he was still around? I'll take the 20/20 cod-lock and get my BA somewhere else.
Round 4
Kent (Zen really got a steal here) and Bonds were the two guys I wanted here. Badly. Nomar as my everyday 1B does not instill me with great confidence.
Round 5
Chris Duncan. Let's just say I was pretty busy when Zen called and move on. Bad pick here. Zen, again got the best value in thr round with Valverde.
Round 6
Broxton was one of my 2 must have guys that I wanted to time the picking of; getting them as late as possible without risking losing out on them. Just felt like I couldn't wait another round.
Toral's Brad Penny pick was the clincher as Penny was the BPA on my board for the round.
Round 7
Punk does a good move getting Benitez that late.
Corey Hart was the other guy a had to have this draft; prolly could have let him go another round, but I couldn't stand the thought of playing chicken and losing out on a stat sheet filler like Hart's going to be. Think Larry Walker, the early years.
Round 8
Punk gets Freel, easily the BPA here. Lilly shoudl get some Ws this year.
Round 9
Marcus Giles. Maybe he and big bro can find some undetectable HGH and get their stroke back together? I wanted Kearns here but bili turned wisenhiemer on me...
Round 10
I wouldv'e taken Howry here, believe it not. bili wolf's me again. Aurillia should give me some line-up flexibilty which is valuable in a short benched lague.
Round 11
Cliff Lee - another off the top of my head dud. By this point my early optimism about the draft is a distant memory. Disaster looms..
Round 12
Mike Jacobs this late makes me feel a little better. No one elese taken in this round is worth a damn.
Round 13
Brandon McCarthy, picked here by Punk is a steal. Ethier won't make my opening day roster. I was going to pick a different player, decinded to try and get him in the prospect draft instead, got frustrated, and just half-consciously typed in Ethier's name.
Round 14
Kaz Matsui. I'm actually excited about this pick, and not just because it ends the draft in record time. Kaz was actually a stud for the last 2 months of the season after his move to Denver. He might actually be my regular 2B and gove me 20 steals and a decent BA. THen again, he might not be in MLB by May.... Upton is easily the best pick of this round.
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| 7 | Toral
ID: 52621719
Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 16:07
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Good heavens what's wrong with me -- I haven't asked for projections from biliruben's spreadsheet yet. Hope we can get them -- league wouldn't be the same without them.
Toral
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| 8 | Pancho Villa
ID: 42231410
Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 17:47
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Preface
One thing about raising two kids by yourself is that it gets easier as they get older(they're now 9 and 12), but it also gets busier - more sports, activities, projects, etc. Combined with running my own business, which never closes, and a March that included a week in the mountains with my family, plus two trips to Phoenix for work, and research time was very limited, even though I had been in another draft that ended about the same time ours started. Still, that doesn't excuse my two major gaffes of my freshman campaign a year ago, when I failed to retain Matt Cain as a prospect, and traded Johann Santana after a slow start.
Keepers
Beltran, Hanley, Manny and Howard were no-brainers. Last year I failed miserably with closers, and since there's so few, I decided to keep both Jenks and Cordero. Jenks is a 35-40 save guy, and Cordero is a legitimate closer. The question is how many save ops will he have with a team that likely will lose over 100 games.
I decided to keep Schmidt over Damon for two reasons.
Schmidt should shine with the Dodgers in a pitcher's park and better relief behind him. I project 16 wins, 180 Ks, 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Not many starters are that solid across the board.
I already have Beltran and Manny in my OF, and figured I could get a 3rd and 4th OF out of the large pool.
Hitters
My initial needs were 2B, 3B and #3 OF. Rushing down here and seeing the draft underway, I hurrirdly picked Pierre, thinking I could solidify steals with him, Hanley and (hopefully) Beltran. Alas, he was someone else's keeper, so back to the drawing board. There were a ton of 3Bs I liked, a deep pool of OFs, but only Barfield and Brandon Phillips really excited me at 2B.
Barfield should improve surrounded by a better hitting Indian team. Hopefully he bats near the top of the lineup and they give him the green light on the base paths. Getting out of Petco Park should help his power numbers as well.
Corey Patterson fills the need for speed in the OF. Willingham has some power, Duffy might be a nice dark horse, especially runs and steals(almost took Dave Roberts here), and Benjie Molina is a 20-25 HR catcher who bats around .280.
Everytime I was set to pick up a 3B, he was gone.
Especially upset when Blalock went right before me. So I settled on Lowell, who rebounded nicely last year. I decided to get a back up in case he reverts to his two-year ago disaster, and am pleased with Wigginton, who also qualifies at 1B, 2B and OF. Steven Drew awaits an early call-up.
Pitching
Schmidt, Arroyo and Mussina should be a nice starting three. Millwood is a year removed from the ERA title and always pitches lots of innings. Hensley came on strong late in the season.
Dotel is healthy, and started the spring well, but his last couple outings have been rough. If he can reclaim his form from a few years ago, 30 saves is possible. The Braves didn't trade Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez so he could pitch a couple innings a week. Could be the Braves' closer of the future.
Outlook
I need a lot of stars to align to win this thing, but feel this team is very competitive. I'm not really weak in any category.
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| 9 | Punk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Sat, Mar 31, 2007, 18:03
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Keepers were so-so since I took over a last place team. Got a few different trade offers, but figured it would be best to move on with what I had and the picks I had.
A young stable of SP were keepers, would have rather had some more O there to keep but what can you do.
SP - Verlander, Willis, Harden and Burnett should be a great starting 4, but 3 of them have had issues in the past, and Verlander is entering his sophmore season where it's hard to repeat success, also having a "dead arm" at the end of last season didn't help him.
O - Lee should be great if he doesn't get injured, Francouer should be a 30-100 guy, and then Drew ended up being the 7th, not really a big guy for me, but oh well.
Also had planned on calling up Delmon before the prospect draft so had 8 keepers with 3 being in the OF.
Round 1 - As Zen said got offers, but just couldn't pass up Aramis Ramirez with my lack of O. Best out there plain and simple.
Round 2 - Was hoping for Adam Dunn right here but he ended up going right before me, even though I already had 3 OF I figured either Dunn or Baldelli should help. Probably too early with Rocco though due to his injury history, also since he's not a lock to play opening day.
Round 3 - Needed some MI with this pick and went with Sanchez after his season last year, hopefully he can hit the same being locked down to a position, also because of last year he can play at a few different spots.
Round 4 - Adam Wainwright could be a big time sleeper this year moving to the rotation. But then again he could falter under full time duties making it a risk.
Round 5 - Jorge still has some left in the tank, and the Yankee's still should be a good hitting team. But we'll see.
Round 6 - At this point I needed saves back since I had zero, out of desperation went with Todd "Rollercoaster" Jones in hopes that last year even though he can no longer strike anyone out (well has he ever really), and he lets 3 people on base per inning, that just maybe i'll be able to get 30 saves out of him. In reality last year he only had a bad two week stretch overall.
Round 7 - Like with the last pick not many closer, or people who could close this year were left. So went with Benitez even though he was most likely going to be traded some where.
Round 8 - Going back to the need for MI I went with Freel here, also think it's a great pick this late for his multi-positions and his SB.
Round 9 - Was Targeting Ian Snell here but Toral took him 6 picks earlier. Robertson has been good just hasn't gotten the runs needed to win games alot, hopefully that changes this year adding Sheffield to the Tigers.
Round 10 - Ianetta has been my "homer" pick on as many fantasy teams as I could this year. Drafted him before he was named #1 in another league and then kept spreading. Playing in Colorado should help inflate his #'s and could end up being better than an aging Posada, time will tell.
Round 11 - Needing another SS option I have faith that Crosby can stay healthy this season and turn into what he has always been rumored to be.
Round 12 - Loved taking Youkilis with this pick, another multi position guy and should put up great numbers on the O loaded RSox.
Round 13 - Brandon McCartney is another one of my sleeper picks for this year after his trade away from Chicago. Although his #'s haven't been good at all in ST, plus how long has it been since there has been a really good Rangers pitcher around, so maybe it will end up being bad after all.
Round 14 - Called up Delmon Young instead of taking another player to only drop someone a few days later. He's got the tools to be a superstar, now with his bloodline and temper who knows what will happen.
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| 10 | nerveclinic
ID: 17311111
Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 13:36
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Zen I really enjoyed reading your draft analysis.
Obviously in your new digs you had a little more time to prepare for the draft and I think it paid off.
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| 11 | Seattle Zen
ID: 46315247
Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 15:06
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Thanks, Nerve, it's my way to decompress from the draft and maybe I'll read this years later and figure what I'm doing wrong :)
Last night, in our old NW league Bili graciously commishes, I landed Edgar Renteria at number 207 - HA! I've found a weakness! I even had Troy Glaus already. Someday I'll come to cherish the steal, the fleet of foot. I'm just not there yet.
And, yes, with nothing else to do in Longview, I had plenty of opportunity to study up.
Out of curiousity, how much overlap do all y'all end up with when you draft your other fantasy teams, it seems most everyone here has more than just this team? I find myself taking many of the same players. It steamed me that the defending champ took Mark Teahen and Rich Hill this year ;)
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| 12 | Baldwin
ID: 3503618
Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 17:23
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how much overlap do all y'all end up with when you draft your other fantasy teams
It would be a lot higher if my opponents would just cooperate and not pick my players so early. I feel I am even willing to pick these guys a round before anyone else would and they still get stolen away.
I have 5/24 overlap in my 2 keeper leagues but that is deceiving because I could hardly get anyone I REALLY wanted. I could get Smoltz [too old], Alou [too old], Clemens [too risky], Winn [no one else wanted] Contreras [no one else wanted] but in each league I could get maybe 10 of what I felt were big difference makers that I valued higher than everyone else. But they were a different set on each team. Even tho I was gunning for the same guys in each.
I really wanted high probability of success/ low radar guys Markakis, Ibanez, Youkilis, Bedard, Olsen, Smoltz, Tracy, Dempster, Otsuka, Wheeler, Nomar and Frank Thomas if you experts all agreed their health risk knocked their price too far down, Weeks, Arroyo, Daniel Cabrera [post-hype]...
I got 2/3 of those kind of guys split between 2 teams.
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| 13 | Baldwin
ID: 3503618
Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 17:29
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Recounting I see a 7/24 overlap. After WW moves I guess.
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| 14 | Punk42AE
Donor
ID: 036635522
Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 19:05
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Are we talking 21 picks or 14?
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| 15 | Myboyjack
ID: 8216923
Mon, Apr 02, 2007, 15:01
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I expect him[Adam Dunn] to hit 60 HR this year with a .270+ BA. I'm not kidding.
Well, he currently on pace for 631 HRs.
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| 16 | Seattle Zen
ID: 46315247
Wed, Apr 04, 2007, 23:41
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Oh, THAT's why you drafted John Maine.
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| 17 | biliruben
ID: 17502215
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 19:27
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butt
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| 18 | Pancho Villa
ID: 495272016
Mon, Oct 01, 2007, 19:42
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from #8
The prediction:
Schmidt should shine with the Dodgers in a pitcher's park and better relief behind him. I project 16 wins, 180 Ks, 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
The reality:
1 win, 22 Ks, 6.31 ERA, 1.79 WHIP
Missed it by that much =
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| 19 | nerveclinic
ID: 105222
Wed, Oct 03, 2007, 08:40
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Did you have to BUTT this?
Looking back my draft sucked.
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