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Subject: Election 2008 predictions ONLY (Toral invited)
Posted by: Seattle Zen
- [49112418] Wed, Oct 29, 2008, 19:02
This is the thread where we make our predictions for the coming election. It can be as simple as "Obama" or a state-by-state breakdown. Senate, Congressional races, even governors and initiative predictions welcome. What is not welcome is any comments or tin hat lunacy.
Toral was once a proud prognosticator round here. If he deigns to slum these parts, his predictions would be welcome. |
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| 25 | Seattle Zen
ID: 358591721
Mon, Nov 03, 2008, 23:44
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Did I mention that you may adjust your predictions? As long as you shut your pie-hole immediately thereafter.
Unlike the current administration, I will listen to advice that I'm not happy hearing. It's too bad that the Democrats nominated Bruce Lundsford in Kentucky because McConnell was vulnerable and it sounds like Lundsford just wasn't the man for the job. Strike the Lundsford prediction.
Even though Ron Paul is on the ballot, Montana simply does not have enough black voters hiding here and there waiting to spring into action tomorrow. Strike Montana.
This was originally a typo, McCain will win OK by more than 20 points.
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| 26 | azdbacker
ID: 13945242
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 03:41
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I will be closer than anyone on the popular vote. And I will make a public apology here if I am not.
I will be correct
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| 28 | man
ID: 511027116
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 05:07
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Obama: 364 Electors; McCain 174 Obama: 54% of the popular vote; McCain 44%; Nader/Barr 2% 57 Dem Senators; 41 Republicans; 2 Indy (Lieberman will be cast out and will be forced to caucus with the Republicans, losing his Chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee.)
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| 29 | Tree
ID: 121035316
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 09:29
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I will be closer than anyone on the popular vote. And I will make a public apology here if I am not.
can we discuss this in another thread? you really think McCain will win the popular vote?!
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| 30 | Pancho Villa
ID: 51546319
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 09:39
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Final Fox News poll
With just one day to go before Election Day, Barack Obama has a 7 percentage point lead over John McCain -- 50-43 percent, according to the final FOX News pre-election poll of likely voters.
Among independents, 43 percent would be comfortable with Biden and 28 percent with Palin.
Palin now has an overall negative rating, as slightly more voters have an unfavorable view of her (49 percent) than have a favorable one (45 percent). Looking back at results among registered voters from the time of Palin's announcement to today, her positive rating has dropped by 8 points, while her negative rating has increased by 20 points.
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| 31 | Razor
ID: 141049220
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 09:46
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291 - Obama - 52%
247 - McCain - 45%
Democrats take 57 seats in the Senate.
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| 32 | azdbacker
ID: 13945242
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 12:54
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Tree - sure, feel free to start one. Yes, I do believe what I wrote. I will weigh in if you start another thread - but only briefly. RIght now I'm writing a paper for my "Voters in America" class that I need for my poli-sci minor, and then I'll be live-blogging election results and coverage at my site the rest of the day. But if you wish to start one, I'll comment on it.
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| 33 | Tree
ID: 121035316
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 13:15
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Tree - sure, feel free to start one. Yes, I do believe what I wrote. I will weigh in if you start another thread - but only briefly. RIght now I'm writing a paper for my "Voters in America" class that I need for my poli-sci minor, and then I'll be live-blogging election results and coverage at my site the rest of the day. But if you wish to start one, I'll comment on it.
i asked you another question in this thread, post 308, about to scroll off the page, so i guess that's a good place to do it.
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| 34 | man
ID: 511027116
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:29
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Check out the exit polls on CNN. They show a decisive victory for Obama in VA an a likely victory in INDIANA. They will no doubt show a big victory in Ohio in 60 seconds. Obama wins big tonight.
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| 35 | man
ID: 511027116
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 19:41
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Ohio 53% to 47% for Obama in the CNN Exit poll. (You have to do the math from the gender breakdown, since they don't want you to do what I'm doing.) GA and NC nearly tied. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=OHP00p1
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| 36 | Razor
ID: 141049220
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 20:30
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Exit polls are worthless.
The most promising thing for Obama so far is his keeping Indiana close. Win or lose, if he is able to do that, I don't see how he doesn't pick up enough states around the country to win. Indiana is hugely red.
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| 37 | Tree
ID: 51011420
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:15
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cnn.com calling ny, michigan, minn, and PA for obama...
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| 38 | Myboyjack
Dude
ID: 014826271
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:19
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At this point McCain can't lose another toss-up state...
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| 39 | Tree
ID: 51011420
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:41
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this is starting to look like a major ass kicking.
azdbacker - i'm still really curious where you pulled your figures from...even more so now...
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| 40 | Myboyjack
Dude
ID: 014826271
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:44
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It's all about margin of victory now.
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| 41 | sarge33rd
ID: 76442923
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 21:53
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FL looking like an Obama win. If so, CA is the only other win he needs, to take the prize.
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| 42 | Tree
ID: 51011420
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:02
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Elizabeth Dole looks to be a loser too...
how's that for godless, you twit....
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| 43 | sarge33rd
ID: 76442923
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:15
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NC and VA both beginning to tilt toward Obama as well.
NC is really tight, with Obama leading atm by some 12k votes with 74% reported.
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| 44 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:47
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So psyched. MSNBC, Daily Show/Colbert and 3 blogs open all night. So nice to have someone elected who is not a dolt.
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| 45 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:51
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I'm still afraid to let it sick in.
Sanity in the White House. Isn't there a law against that?
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| 46 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:54
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bili baby! So psyched. In about 7 minutes, they'll give him California, and very soon thereafter he'll get one or more of the following: Fla, Virginia, NC and Indiana where the remaining precincts are in predominant Obama supporting areas.
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| 47 | sarge33rd
ID: 76442923
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:56
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NC moving hard to McCain now. VA and FL are pretty solidly Obama.
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| 48 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 22:57
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Indiana just flipped to Obama. Lake and neighboring north/western counties are always the last to be counted, and are heavy for Obama. 94% in. CNN is very fast on their updates.
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| 49 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:00
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MarKos says McCain may be conceding right now, 11pm EST. We'll see.
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| 50 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:00
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NBC just called Obama as President elect.
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| 51 | Pancho Villa
ID: 51546319
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:02
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CNN - President Obama - 9:01PM MST
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| 52 | Tree
ID: 51011420
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:14
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what a glorious day. a glorious glorious day.
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| 53 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:19
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McCain conceding now...crowd is booing recognition of Obama's victory.
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| 54 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:21
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Classy speech by McCain so far.
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| 55 | Tree
ID: 51011420
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:26
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and McCain shushed them. good for him.
my girlfriend fell asleep as soon as they announced Obama winning. guess i should wake her up when he speaks...
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| 56 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:27
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Now booing Biden...and McCain gives an incredibly humble and cool speech.
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| 57 | walk
ID: 139332920
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:28
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Hit the DVR or Tivo, Tree.
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| 58 | Tree
ID: 51011420
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:50
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the McCain who gave that speech was the McCain people respected.
it's like he was taken over by evil PalinPodPeople for the last couple months...and now, he's back to normal...
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| 59 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Tue, Nov 04, 2008, 23:57
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It was Steve Schmidt. At some point McCain said "I'll do whatever it takes to win", and Schmidt said "Do what I say!".
Moral: If you sell your soul, don't sell it to a moron.
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| 60 | Myboyjack
Dude
ID: 014826271
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 00:13
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fourty years ago the president-elect wouldn't have been able to take a pee in a lot of restrooms that I use.
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| 61 | Pancho Villa
ID: 51546319
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 00:23
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Looks like a pretty serene crowd in Chicago. Well behaved for half a million people. I've seen much rowdier leaving Soldier Field after a Bears game.
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| 62 | biliruben
Leader
ID: 589301110
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 00:35
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They were following Obama's mood. I think he's got a lot of really hard work in front of him, and he's starting to feel it's weight. He also lost the woman who raised him 2 days ago.
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| 63 | Tree
ID: 51011420
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 00:36
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that was so amazing. i literally had tears in my eyes the entire time Obama spoke. what a great, great day in our nation's history...
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| 64 | C1-NRB
ID: 596573021
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 01:00
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that was so amazing. i literally had tears in my eyes the entire time Obama spoke. what a great, great day in our nation's history...
I'll almost go that far and say that President-elect Obama's speech tonight could go down as one of the best in American history.
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| 65 | James K Polk
ID: 171029511
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 13:42
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If you sell your soul, don't sell it to a moron.
Bili, next time I need to update my email sig, I'm quoting you.
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| 66 | Tree
ID: 121035316
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 13:53
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Obama 364 electoral votes, McCain with 174
If Obama wins NC, and loses GA and MO, i nailed his 364. of course, that math works out to McCain having just 173, so either my math sucks, or something isn't working out.
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| 67 | Razor
ID: 141049220
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 13:57
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Nebraska's 2nd district still has an EV in play.
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| 68 | azdbacker
ID: 13945242
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 14:28
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Nice prediction, Tree. Man, and sarge and Perm Dude were all dead-on too.
Hey, can I have North Carolina please, since you guys already won? I have some money riding on that one.
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| 69 | sarge33rd
ID: 99331714
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 14:31
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watching NC last night, it see-sawed back and forth and back and forth. VERY narrow margin there, whichever way it ultimately falls/fell.
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| 70 | DWetzel at work
ID: 49962710
Wed, Nov 05, 2008, 14:52
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Pesky Indiana did me in. (I had NC/MO for McCain too, we'll see.)
Might be right about that nailbiter in Georgia, though not for the reason I expected. Not sure Saxby gets the 50% needed to avoid the runoff.
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| 71 | Tree
ID: 121035316
Thu, Nov 06, 2008, 12:41
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looks like North Carolina has gone to Obama, with Missouri still to go:
current tally is 364 to 162...
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| 72 | Seattle Zen
ID: 358591721
Sun, Nov 09, 2008, 14:44
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It's still early as MO is still not official and the Georgia, Minnesota, and Alaska senate races are not over, but let's look at my calls.
Unless something changes, it looks like the only state I guess incorrectly was Missouri. As for the margins of victory, I underestimated McCain's results in some southern states, which accounts for my underestimating his nationwide results.
Every state I predicted Obama would win by 20 or more or ten or more points did so, but I underestimated MA, DE, and VT's results as they all had over 20 points. Likewise, MN, NM, NV, and WI all had over ten points and I didn't predict that.
I incorrectly thought McCain would win WY by ten to twenty points, he got over twenty. AL, AR, LA, MS, TX, and WV all were +10 wins for McCain and those numbers surprised me.
The biggest surprises for me were New Mexico and Nevada for their huge margins, which I have to imagine came from poor estimating Hispanic turnout and their overwhelming support of Obama. Only 36% of Arizona's Latino voters supported the old man. Wisconsin's margin was also very surprising to me, don't know why right now.
I'm ecstatic that Betsy Marksey won, disappointed that we won't have an Elwyn in Washington and very disappointed that Darcy Burner lost a nail biter for the third straight election.
Glancing through the thread, I think I was the closest to being correct with the up-in-the-air MO possibly my only blemish. Tree looks like he finished second and Sarge third. AzDBacker graciously admitted his last place finish, Biliruben thankfully was just about as wrong, where is his apology? :)
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| 73 | Building 7
ID: 1103028
Sun, Nov 09, 2008, 16:59
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I predict Franken will win in Minnesota.
And what happened to toral? He's a conservative isn't he? Never mind, I can guess what happened.
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| 74 | Perm Dude
SuperDude
ID: 030792616
Sun, Nov 09, 2008, 18:46
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Toral was fine when he wasn't drunk. When he was, he turned into a nasty shiit.
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| 75 | Building 7
ID: 471052128
Wed, Jul 01, 2009, 12:33
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It took awhile, but my prediction came true. Franken wins Minnesota. I think he was about 300 votes behind when that bold prediction was made.
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