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0 Subject: China Failure

Posted by: Boldwin
- [478163018] Mon, Oct 01, 2012, 05:13

The China Subprime Loan Crisis

Understanding China is about as hard as sorting thru quantum physics, but considering how important China is these days, it's worth the effort.

Exposing China's Shadow Banking System
1Boldwin
      ID: 478163018
      Mon, Oct 01, 2012, 05:17
When you are sure you understand China's ghost cities Fill me in, will ya? Make work projects? Speculation built cities? We've got this much budget, spend it or lose our government funding?
2Boldwin
      ID: 478163018
      Mon, Oct 01, 2012, 05:57
Ghost China

You thot Las Vegas had a RE bubble.
3Boldwin
      ID: 478163018
      Mon, Oct 01, 2012, 06:12
Professor Zhu Chenghu, dean of the Defense Affairs Institute for China's National Defense University of the People's Liberation Army. He holds the rank of Major General.
Zhu is most famous for comments made at an event organized by the Better Hong Kong Foundation in July 2005. Zhu told Wall Street Journal reporter Danny Gittings (in the context of a Sino-U.S. military conflict over Taiwan), "if the Americans draw their missiles and position-guided ammunition on to the target zone on China's territory, I think we will have to respond with nuclear weapons," and that "we [...] will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xi'an. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds ... of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."

Gittings later wrote, "Almost too stunned to respond, I offered Gen. Zhu a chance to back down—or at least qualify the circumstances under which China would unleash its nuclear missiles against 'hundreds of, or two hundreds' of American cities. Presumably, I suggested, he was only talking about the unlikely scenario of a U.S. attack on mainland Chinese soil. No, the general replied, a nuclear response would be justified even if it was just a conventional attack on a Chinese aircraft or warship—something very likely if Washington honored its commitment to help defend Taiwan against an invasion by Beijing. A fellow correspondent offered Gen. Zhu another escape route, reminding him that China had a longstanding policy of no first use of nuclear weapons. But the general brushed that aside as well, saying the policy could be changed and was only really intended to apply to conflicts with nonnuclear states in any case." - wiki
4Boldwin
      ID: 478163018
      Mon, Oct 01, 2012, 06:14
Thank you Bill Clinton for giving China the tech that finally stopped all their ICBM's from self-destructing from gyroscope failure.
5Boldwin
      ID: 478163018
      Mon, Oct 01, 2012, 06:17
While we are at it, let's build a giant chinese ghost town in Angola.
6Boldwin
      ID: 478163018
      Mon, Oct 01, 2012, 06:22
One investor puts forward the theory that is an artificial devise to prevent investment from simply fleeing the country.

Others suggest Keynes madness on steroids.
7Boldwin
      ID: 478163018
      Mon, Oct 01, 2012, 06:35
People aren't told what those who know, know.
8Boldwin
      ID: 54115211
      Sat, Dec 01, 2012, 02:53
Finally an explanation that makes sense for China ghost cities. They are meaningless as land development but useful in artificially producing growth/success numbers for local leaders.
local Chinese officials are evaluated for promotions and other rewards based on how well the economy they manage performs. Construction and real estate activities are among the most straightforward ways to stimulate growth. White-elephant construction projects thus offer eager officials a perfect opportunity to impress their political superiors, even if massive developments do not necessarily make any economic sense.
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On the surface, banks' balance sheets have remained healthy despite these debts, since banks tend to roll over or "ever green" loans by issuing new loans to help borrowers "repay" old ones. In addition, local governments have been able to make their interest payments using their land as collateral.
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Perpetually rolling over an ever-growing number of loans to pay off prior loans is classic Ponzi behavior.
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"Given slower growth rates and falling real estate prices this year, the frequency of land expropriation is slowing down. But the truth remains that much of urbanization in China is a state-driven phenomenon, using resources drawn from the financial sector.

Although the central government recognizes the seriousness of the problem, it seems to lack any real resolve to tackle the issue head on. Muddling through seems to be so much easier. So until a major slowdown in the economy happens, the Chinese real estate market will continue on its current course."

The first two sentences are undoubtedly true. State-Owned-Enterprises (SOEs) are a huge drain on the real Chinese economy while making GDP look far better than it really is.
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Unlike Ong, I see no realistic way China can "muddle through" for much longer given the bubble is busting in China right now.

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