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Subject: Fiscal Cliff and the Debt Ceiling...lame duck 2012
Posted by: Seattle Zen
- [47630913] Thu, Nov 15, 2012, 18:44

The more I read about the "fiscal cliff" the more I feel like the br'er rabbit pleading "don't throw me in the briar patch!!!".
Latest offer from Obama for a revenue to spending ratio in the negotiations is $2.5 of spending cuts to $1 of new revenue. Look at the chart above. That looks like there is $8 of new revenue to every one dollar of spending cuts, but get this, half of the spending cuts are to defense, which I count in my "win" category. It's $16 dollars revenue for every $1 of non-military cuts.
This is a MASSIVE cut into the deficit, something that is overdue and no Republican administration has ever shown it was able to do. It would supposedly throw us into another recession and raise unemployment. Well, if unemployment numbers do start to increase, there are government actions that can address that.
Attempting to cut this much out of the military budget alone is simply not politically possible. Couldn't be happier than the thought that our military would actually have to scramble to make ends meet, we could start being picky over who gets to join the military and let's put an end to the idea that if you join the military for four years that you are entitled to all sorts of veterans' benefits.
I firmly believe that the American economy has gained a lot of upward momentum and will see continued growth even after the Cliff. I think the CBO is underestimating the amount of tax revenue that will be captured in 2013-2015, we could see deficits as low as $300 billion in 2015 and surpluses in the late teens.
So, why bargain with the Republicans? They not only think that we should not let the rates revert to the Clinton admin. levels, they insist that we throw SS and the Medicare/Medicaid programs on the operating table so they can stick their scalpels into them. Screw that, let's gleefully jump off this cliff. |
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| 147 | Boldwin
ID: 22052119 Wed, Jan 02, 2013, 07:19
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American Majority Action spokesman Ron Meyer told Breitbart News late Tuesday that enough House Republicans have banded together in an effort to unseat House Speaker John Boehner from his position--they just need a leader to take up the mantle.
“At least 20 House Republican members have gotten together, discussed this and want to unseat Speaker Boehner--and are willing to do what it takes to do it,” Meyer said. “That’s more than enough to get the job done, but the one problem these guys face is they need a leader to coalesce behind.” --- The vote for Boehner’s re-election as Speaker happens on Thursday, two days after Boehner’s decision to support the Senate "fiscal cliff" deal Vice President Joe Biden cut with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on New Year’s Eve. Off the cuff I seem to recall that since Dems won't vote for him, Boehner can be blocked by just 18 steadfast tea partiers.
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| 148 | Pancho Villa
ID: 59645318 Wed, Jan 02, 2013, 10:43
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Even though Boehner is getting all the pub as the one tarnished in this debacle, Harry Reid deserves just as many negative reviews for his part. It took Joe Biden to step in and take the lead for Democrats to forge a deal with McConnell, leaving Reid on the sidelines with egg on his face.
Reid and Pelosi are just as embarrassing, maybe even more so, than the Republican congressional leadership. Obama showed little leadership in his role, beyond posturing for the cameras. It's fortunate he has a congressionally saavy VP who understands how to forge a deal and get it passed. Obama is also fortunate that Biden is content maintaining a low profile, eschewing an opportunity to mug for the cameras on every cable news network and bask in his glory as the dealmaker, something Obama couldn't accomplish.
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| 149 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3603123 Wed, Jan 02, 2013, 11:20
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So how many "real conservatives" does Kermit Norquist have to round up to run against the Republicans who voted for tax increases? Over 100?
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| 150 | Razor
ID: 177192916 Wed, Jan 02, 2013, 11:33
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Norquist already read the writing on the wall and decided to somehow back the fiscal cliff deal despite it raising taxes. He's realized that in the past 3 weeks, he's gone from conservative demigod to irrelevant and decided to publicly make statements anyway indicating his approval for the deal despite no one caring.
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| 151 | Pancho Villa
ID: 59645318 Wed, Jan 02, 2013, 11:34
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According to Norquist, those Republicans didn't vote for a tax increase.
It’s technically not a violation of the pledge, but I understand why a lot of Republicans had said, look, even though what’s happening is the tax cuts disappear and we’re restoring them for most people, so we’re not raising taxes. We’re actually cutting taxes.
I guess what he's saying is, "I'm irrelevant."
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| 152 | nerveclinic
ID: 569232410 Wed, Jan 02, 2013, 13:26
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haven't read the whole thread.
here is the Readers Digest Version.
Five Things need to happen.
1) Raise Taxes on the Rich even more then we just did.
2) Raise taxes on Middle Class to a lesser extent
3) Raise the age requirements for Social Security significantly
4) Raise the age requirements for Medicare significantly
5) Cut Military spending significantly
If all of the above happens the country is saved but it can only happens when the economy improves, and they all have to happen.
Does the USA government/Poli's have the guts to do it?
Not a chance
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| 153 | Pancho Villa
ID: 59645318 Wed, Jan 02, 2013, 13:53
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4) Raise the age requirements for Medicare significantly
That's not as obvious as other Medicare issues
Do politicians have enough guts to address this issue without bringing up death panels and euthanasia?
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| 164 | Boldwin
ID: 1902939 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 10:49
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Paul Ryan explains his yes vote in a good interview with Hugh Hewitt.
About as good a case as a conservative could make. I won't be satisfied with his explanation until he couples this with a solid NO to debt ceiling increases later.
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| 165 | Boldwin
ID: 1902939 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 10:55
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Republicans would technically avoid violating the no-new-taxes pledge that most of them have signed because they would then be voting to cut taxes. - SZ#41
Winner winner, chicken dinner. I was not aware of that wrinkle, but there is the obvious channel the water will flow. - B#42
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| 166 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 11:57
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Michael Medved (of all people): Obama's no secret agent of destruction.
Meanwhile, I see many on the Right are still fixated on "I didn't have sexual relations with Grover Nordquist's pledge."
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| 167 | Boldwin
ID: 1902939 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 13:03
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Congressman King, he of the 'hell with the GOP and especially Boehner if they won't put up for a vote a porkbarrel bill with Sandy relief in it'...
...just tucked tail and voted for Boehner as speaker.
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| 168 | Boldwin
ID: 1902939 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 13:09
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2 for West, 1 for Amash, 1 for Cantor, 1 for Labrador, 1 for Jordan, 1 for Walker = 11 GOP defections so far...
They need 18 to kick boehner afaik.
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| 171 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 13:14
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Watch the vote live.
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| 173 | Building 7
ID: 87592712 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 13:18
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Senators Got 154-Page 'Fiscal Cliff' Bill 3 Minutes Before Voting on It
The U.S. Senate voted 89-8 to approve legislation to avoid the fiscal cliff despite having only 3 minutes to read the 154-page bill and budget score. Multiple Senate sources have confirmed to CNSNews.com that senators received the bill at approximately 1:36 AM on Jan. 1, 2013 – a mere three minutes before they voted to approve it at 1:39 AM. The bill is 154-pages and includes several provisions that are unrelated to the fiscal cliff, including repealing a section of ObamaCare, extending the wind-energy tax credit, and a rum tax subsidy deal for Puerto Rican rum makers....
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| 174 | Boldwin
ID: 1902939 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 13:20
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He got 216 votes in the first reading.
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| 175 | Boldwin
ID: 1902939 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 13:22
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He picked them up in the second, 'presents and abstaining' can change I guess.
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| 176 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 14:02
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Got his 220.
It is probably worth noting that, unless another candidate like Cantor was going to himself get 220 votes, and splitting the GOP vote would have made Nancy Pelosi the Speaker. The prospect of another Speakership for her was enough to tamp down the Tea Party revolt this time.
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| 177 | Tree
ID: 1910562515 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 14:19
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Congressman King, he of the 'hell with the GOP and especially Boehner if they won't put up for a vote a porkbarrel bill with Sandy relief in it'...
...just tucked tail and voted for Boehner as speaker.
blah blah blah. you missed a whole news cycle.
from yesterday evening
A New York lawmaker says House Speaker John Boehner has promised votes to aid victims of Superstorm Sandy by Jan. 15...
...King said Boehner made the promise in a private meeting with lawmakers from affected states. King and others said they were now satisfied that the aid will be forthcoming.
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| 178 | Boldwin
ID: 1902939 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 15:26
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PD#176
The problem with that reading of the situation afaik is that she also would have had to get 217 votes and they could have voted everyday for the next two years without getting her seated.
Cantor could have gotten 217 if Boehner had been forced to step off.
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| 179 | sarge33rd
ID: 12554167 Thu, Jan 03, 2013, 19:50
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Cant provide FEMA funding or SANDY relief, but we can intriduce for a THIRTYFOURTH vote, Obamacare Repeal legislation
fkn idiots
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| 180 | nerveclinic
ID: 569232410 Fri, Jan 04, 2013, 08:41
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The sad thing about the all the hand wringing and name calling by the right on the current budget situation and the current deficit is they don't really understand the science of economics.
Spending has not gone up under Obama except for a one time stimulus (Something Bush did also) and for the health care law (Which had funding to go with it so there is not an effect on the deficit.)
The main reason for the increase in the deficit is that Obama was handed the worst economic crisis since the great depression. Economics 101 when the economy gets this bad revenues drop dramatically which increases the deficit. The deficits have been caused by decreased revenues due to lower tax collection due to a poor economy, not increased spending.
But once again don't let the facts get in the way.
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| 181 | biliruben
ID: 21841115 Fri, Jan 04, 2013, 19:51
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That, and tax revenues being at historic, unsustainable lows.
The GOP has starved the beast for 20 years. Now it's time for the other shoe to drop, and start dismantling SS and Medicare. Or so they hope.
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| 183 | Boldwin
ID: 51036421 Fri, Jan 04, 2013, 23:19
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Middle-class workers will take a bigger hit to their income proportionately than those earning between $200,000 and $500,000 under the new fiscal cliff deal, according to the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center.
Earners in the latter group will pay an average 1.3 percent more – or an additional $2,711 – in taxes this year, while workers making between $30,000 and $200,000 will see their paychecks shrink by as much as 1.7 percent – or up to $1,784 – the D.C.-based think tank reported.
Overall, nearly 80 percent of households will pay more money to the federal government as a result of the fiscal cliff deal. Tax Policy Center, via The Daily Mail, via Gateway Pundit And you bought that load about Obama championing the middle class?
Your financial pain, his glee...
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| 184 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169 Fri, Jan 04, 2013, 23:49
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Defining the middle claas.
It's almost certainly not $200K/year and above. Median household (not individual) income in the US is a shade over $50,000/year.
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| 185 | Boldwin
ID: 51036421 Fri, Jan 04, 2013, 23:58
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80 percent of households will pay more
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| 186 | sarge33rd
ID: 12554167 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 00:11
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how much comes from ending the payroll tax holiday? THAT, would exlpain immediately, why the discrepancy, since FICA is capped annually.
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| 187 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 00:25
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Some, I'm sure.
The Right whines about the deficit. Then whines because paying it back affects a lot of people.
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| 188 | Boldwin
ID: 51036421 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 01:16
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When your goal is to bring everyone down to the level of the bottom 20%, regressive taxes are the best thing since sliced bread.
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| 189 | sarge33rd
ID: 12554167 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 01:24
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No B, as usual you have that bassackwards. REGRESSIVE taxes, are those which hit the poor the hardest. Things like sales tax. PROGRESSIVE taxes, hit the wealthiest, the hardest. Like in theory, Income Tax.
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| 190 | Boldwin
ID: 51036421 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 01:56
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Rush explains the debacle.
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| 191 | Boldwin
ID: 1303155 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 14:16
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Russia has a flat tax of 13%.
But Obama can't make it on 39%Take note, Mr. President: Russia's flat-tax miracle has helped bring its budget back into balance. Its revenues from income taxes have more than doubled since the single, low tax rate was instated.
Since abolishing its agriculture tax and slashing its tax on small businesses by 50%, China has enjoyed the world's biggest gains in the number of rich
As part of its post-crisis economic stimulus package, Beijing is reforming its VAT tax, which would cut corporate taxes as well. And just two months ago, it launched a new round of tax-cutting measures that will help more than 900,000 companies throughout China.
Meanwhile, back in formerly supercapitalistic America, our leaders have agreed to jack up taxes on small businesses. Obama's new fiscal-cliff tax hike on individual filers earning $400,000 or more in income will hit more than 750,000 small-business owners. They account for more than 56% of all income from such firms and employ tens of millions of workers, both of which will be hurt by the higher rate.
Yet Obama says "there is still more to do" to make sure "the wealthiest Americans pay their fair share." He vows to make "our tax code more progressive than it's been in decades."
Funny how the Russians and Chinese figured out that class-warfare ideology doesn't work and is in fact, a recipe for failure. Funny how communists know that lower taxes grow the economy and keep you competitive.
As our president mau-maus the rich to "pay their fair share" to help fund his massive social programs, America, like Europe, risks losing a fair share of its wealth and power to communist superpowers that have rethought and reformed their command-and-control economies.
Obama thinks he's taking the nation "Forward!" But he's really taking it back to the failed past.
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| 192 | sarge33rd
ID: 12554167 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 14:32
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Yeah, because the economic growth of an emerging economy, is comparable to one where the wealthy have created stagnation, so as to preserve their own status.
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| 193 | Tree
ID: 35054512 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 14:48
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meanwhile, in the real world.
The Russian Federation is a considered a prime case of the success of a flat tax; the real revenues from its Personal Income Tax rose by 25.2% in the first year after the Federation introduced a flat tax, followed by a 24.6% increase in the second year, and a 15.2% increase in the third year.
The Laffer curve predicts such an outcome, attributing the primary reason for the greater revenue to higher levels of economic growth stemming from the introduction of the flat tax.
The Russian example is often used as proof of the validity of this analysis, despite an International Monetary Fund study in 2006 which found that there was no sign "of Laffer-type behavioral responses generating revenue increases from the tax cut elements of these reforms" in Russia or in other countries.
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| 194 | Boldwin
ID: 1303155 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 18:45
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If only we were an emerging economy.
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| 195 | sarge33rd
ID: 12554167 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 19:33
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That was 120 years ago, and it was NOT a good time to be a blue collar laborer.
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| 196 | Boldwin
ID: 13025520 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 21:31
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“What happened?” he asked. “My paycheck just went down by an amount that I don’t feel comfortable with. I guarantee this decrease will hurt me more than the increase in income taxes will hurt those making over $400,000.” - democratic underground poster. Priceless
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| 197 | sarge33rd
ID: 12554167 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 21:32
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and he has the House Republicans to thank for it.
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| 198 | Boldwin
ID: 13025520 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 21:42
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Sure, blame the side trying to prevent all tax increases while taking unbelievable media fire for it. You are shameless Sarge.
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| 199 | sarge33rd
ID: 12554167 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 21:49
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No, I am honest. The rich...have been coddled for too long. Time for them to pay up.
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| 200 | Boldwin
ID: 13025520 Sat, Jan 05, 2013, 21:50
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Tell it to the paycheck the DU poster is holding.
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| 201 | biliruben
ID: 21841115 Sun, Jan 06, 2013, 10:21
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Obama wanted an extension of the payroll tax, which is what you are mainly bitching and whining about. It was a tax increase that the GOP "won" in negotiations.
Talk to McConnell.
As for he rich loving Russia - let 'em have the fancified leaches.
I'll take the folks who do the work instead.
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| 202 | Boldwin
ID: 609622 Sun, Jan 06, 2013, 23:26
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...and turn them into government dependents.
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| 203 | biliruben
ID: 41431323 Sun, Jan 06, 2013, 23:28
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Mr. Snappy.
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| 204 | Mith
ID: 4310402110 Fri, Jan 18, 2013, 10:51
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Krauthammer Today understands what many Republicans just can't seem to wrap their heads around:What divides Republicans today is a straightforward tactical question: Can you govern from one house of Congress? Should you even try? Can you shrink government, restrain spending, bring a modicum of fiscal sanity to the country when the President and a blocking Senate have no intention of doing so?
One faction feels committed to try. It wishes to carry out its small-government electoral promises and will cast no vote inconsistent with that philosophy. These are the House Republicans who voted no on the “fiscal cliff” deal because it raised taxes without touching spending. Indeed, it increased spending with its crazy-quilt crony-capitalist tax “credits” — for wind power and other indulgences.
They were willing to risk the fiscal cliff. Today they are willing to risk a breach of the debt ceiling and even a government shutdown rather than collaborate with Obama’s tax-and-spend agenda.
The other view is that you cannot govern from the House. The reason Ryan and John Boehner finally voted yes on the lousy fiscal-cliff deal is that by then there was nowhere else to go.
Republicans could not afford to bear the blame (however unfair) for a $4.5 trillion across-the-board tax hike and a Pentagon hollowed out by sequester.
The party establishment is coming around to the view that if you try to govern from one house — e.g., force spending cuts with cliffhanging brinkmanship — you lose. You not only don’t get the cuts. You get the blame for rattled markets and economic uncertainty. You get humiliated by having to cave in the end. And you get opinion polls ranking you below head lice and colonoscopies in popularity.
There is history here. The Gingrich Revolution ran aground when it tried to govern from Congress, losing badly to President Clinton over government shutdowns. Nor did the modern insurgents do any better in the 2011 debt-ceiling and 2012 fiscal-cliff showdowns with Obama.
Obama’s postelection arrogance and intransigence can put you in a fighting mood. I sympathize. But I’m tending toward the realist view: Don’t force the issue when you don’t have the power.
The debt-ceiling deadline is coming up. You can demand commensurate spending cuts, the usual, reasonable Republican offer. But you won’t get them. Obama will hold out. And, at the 11th hour, you will have to give in as you get universally blamed for market gyrations and threatened credit downgrades.
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| 205 | sarge33rd
ID: 4609710 Sat, Jan 19, 2013, 22:32
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Caymans not going to be a financial dumping grounds any more
The British overseas territory, which wants to shed its reputation for clandestine financial activity, is introducing sweeping reforms that will make public the names of thousands of previously hidden companies and their directors.
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| 206 | biliruben
ID: 59551120 Sun, Jan 20, 2013, 11:35
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A good graph from Paul Ryan:

He has no clue on the solution, but at least he appears to understand the problem.
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| 207 | sarge33rd
ID: 4609710 Mon, Jan 21, 2013, 01:57
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Another Nobel Laureate, speaks to income inequality, dragging down the recovery
Joseph Stiglitz, author of the above
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| 208 | Boldwin
ID: 10055219 Mon, Jan 21, 2013, 11:09
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When even 'Nobel Laureate' Paul Krugman sides with Milton Friedman and says you are wrong...you are just plain wrong.
And you are also the answer to the 'Jeopardy' question, 'who occasioned hell freezing over?'.
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| 209 | biliruben
ID: 59551120 Mon, Jan 21, 2013, 12:21
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For some reason Brennan didn't link to Krugman's actual article.
Here it is.
... and a follow-up.
Duncan Black suggests that there’s still a macroeconomic case for targeting economic aid on people with lower incomes; e.g, food stamps yes, cuts in the capital gains tax no. Very much so! In fact, in a way the same argument I made for not making too much of high-income saving and low-income dissaving also makes the case for aid right now to the bottom half of the distribution.
Here’s how it goes: at any point in time, those with lower incomes include a high proportion of people doing temporarily badly. Many of those people will be “liquidity-constrained” — out of liquid assets, and unable to borrow except at high rates. These are people who will spend a large fraction of any aid, and therefore transfers to that group will have a much bigger multiplier effect than, say, tax cuts for the rich.
It’s even better, of course, to target aid on those we know are in temporary distress — which is why unemployment insurance is an especially effective stimulus.
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| 210 | sarge33rd
ID: 4609710 Fri, Jan 25, 2013, 00:36
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This I did not know;
In the past 30 years, Cngress has only passed 4 budgets, Cart FY '77, Reagan FY '89 and Clinton FY '95 and FY '97
The House of Representatives has passed what is known as the No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013. This Act will withhold the pay of all members of either house of Congress, starting on April 16, 2013, if a budget resolution for fiscal year 2014 isn’t passed by April 15. The pay will be put into an escrow account until such time that a budget does get passed, or until the last day of the 113th Congress, whichever comes first. It applies to all 535 members.
It’s no secret that Congress didn’t pass a budget at all from 2010 to 2012, but what may not be well known is that they’ve only passed budgets four times in the last 30 years. The Washington Post reports that Congress has typically relied on omnibus bills and continuing resolutions to keep the government operating recently, and that budgets have only passed in 1977, 1989, 1995 and 1997. No budgets actually passed under either Bush Sr. or Bush Jr., and have not passed so far under Obama either.
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